Three signals are converging this week. Africa's sovereign debt markets are reopening: Ethiopia restructured its defaulted Eurobond, Egypt received the first tranche of a 5.7 billion euro EU package, and the DRC's debut bond found four times its target. At the same time, Brent crude has fallen to around 72 dollars, providing the first sustained oil price relief since the Hormuz crisis began. And Washington's Section 301 tariff hearings open today with eight African nations in the dock. The continent's investment case is improving on multiple fronts simultaneously, even as new trade risks emerge from the West.

Big Picture »

Vodacom Completes a 2.1 Billion Dollar Acquisition of Safaricom, Gaining Control of East Africa’s Most Valuable Platform

The transaction closed June 30. It gives Vodacom 55% of Safaricom, full consolidation of M-PESA, and a direct stake in Ethiopia’s fastest-growing telecom market. It is the most significant corporate transaction in East African telecommunications history.

Vodacom Group completed its acquisition of an additional 20% effective stake in Safaricom on June 30, lifting its shareholding to 55% and securing majority control of Kenya’s largest company. The Court of Appeal cleared the final legal challenge on June 26. The total transaction is valued at 2.1 billion dollars, or R35 billion. Vodacom acquired 15% from the Government of Kenya for KES 204 billion and 5% from Vodafone for KES 68 billion, at KES 34 per share. The Government of Kenya retains a 20% stake. Safaricom remains listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

Under IFRS accounting, Safaricom’s results now consolidate fully into Vodacom’s group accounts. Safaricom reported EBITDA of R29 billion in FY2026 and net income of KSh99.7 billion, up 67%. M-PESA contributes 44% of Kenya service revenue. In Ethiopia, service revenue grew 130.9% in the year to March 2026, and the operation is approaching EBITDA breakeven. Vodacom updates investors on medium-term targets around July 27 when it publishes Q1 results, the first to include Safaricom as a fully consolidated entity.

This Week

Trade Policy · Washington DC

Section 301 Tariff Hearings Begin Today as Eight African Nations Face a 12.5 Percent Duty Threat

The USTR’s public hearings on proposed forced labour tariffs open today in Washington. The July 6 written comment deadline has passed. Eight African nations face proposed 12.5% additional tariffs: Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. Countries with partial forced labour prohibition frameworks may qualify for the lower 10% rate. Trade lawyers at White and Case note the USTR likely intends to have these tariffs in place by July 24, when the Section 122 global tariff authority expires. Egypt is the most exposed, with 2.6 billion dollars in annual US exports concentrated in textiles. South Africa and Morocco follow. Carve-outs cover energy products, certain metals, pharmaceuticals, coffee, and some agricultural goods, but the scope across manufactured goods is broad. Today’s hearings are the last formal public stage before the USTR makes its determination.

Sovereign Debt · East Africa

Ethiopia Reaches Agreement to Restructure Its Defaulted Eurobond, Restoring a Path to Debt Sustainability

Ethiopia reached an agreement to restructure its defaulted sovereign Eurobond in the week of July 6, a landmark step toward restoring debt sustainability and investor confidence in East Africa’s largest economy. Ethiopia defaulted in 2023, joining a small group of African sovereigns unable to service external debt during the post-pandemic tightening cycle. The agreement opens the path for Ethiopia to re-engage international capital markets. Ethiopia now joins Zambia and Ghana in having reached or progressed toward creditor agreements, suggesting the worst of Africa’s sovereign debt crisis has passed for its most prominent cases.

Geopolitics · Egypt / Europe

Egypt Receives the First Tranche of a 5.7 Billion Euro EU Package as Cairo Cements Its Strategic Value to Brussels

Egypt announced this week that it expects to receive a 1.5 billion euro first tranche of a 5.7 billion euro EU macro-financial assistance package. The EU views Egypt as a key strategic ally in North Africa and the Middle East, particularly for managing migration flows and providing regional stability. The package arrives at a moment when Egypt is simultaneously facing US Section 301 tariff exposure on its textile exports and managing a fiscal adjustment under its IMF programme. The EU capital provides additional balance of payments support and strengthens Cairo’s hand in managing its transition. For investors, the EU-Egypt strategic relationship provides a buffer against the worst-case Section 301 tariff impact and underlines why Egypt, despite its macro challenges, continues to attract multilateral support at scale.

Energy Markets · Pan-African

Brent Falls to Around 72 Dollars, the Lowest Since Before the Hormuz Crisis, as Oil Market Pressure Eases

Brent fell to around 72 dollars this week, its lowest level since before the Iran conflict. WTI is at approximately 69 dollars. The move reflects partial restoration of Gulf shipping, signs of progress toward a US-Iran framework, and weaker global demand. For African net oil importers, this is the most significant price relief since April. South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, and the WAEMU zone have absorbed fuel price increases of 20 to 40% since the Hormuz blockade. A sustained Brent at 72 to 75 dollars translates into measurable reductions at the next fuel price adjustment cycles across these markets.

Minerals · DRC / UAE

The UAE Has Cemented Its Position as the Primary Refining and Export Terminal for DRC Gold

The UAE has consolidated its role as the dominant refining and export hub for gold from the DRC, according to The Exchange Africa. Dubai now processes the majority of DRC gold leaving the region, with questions growing about how much of that gold passes through transparent supply chains versus conflict or artisanal sources. The DRC’s new lithium royalty reclassification and cobalt export restrictions have drawn significant international attention, but gold remains the country’s most traded and most opaque mineral export. For international buyers and investors with ESG obligations, DRC gold supply chain provenance is a compliance risk that is becoming harder to manage given UAE intermediation. The Mali government’s creation of a new artisanal gold regulator this week reflects the same underlying concern across West Africa.

Tanzania is absorbing more foreign investment than at any point in its history while simultaneously managing political tensions stemming from last year’s disputed election. Today, youth-led protesters have gathered in Dar es Salaam and other cities calling for democratic reforms and justice for the estimated 518 people killed in post-election violence. The government deployed military and police and banned all political rallies. This tension, between Tanzania’s genuine economic momentum and its narrowing political space under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, is the defining challenge for investors assessing the country’s medium-term operating environment.

The economic case is strong. Tanzania secured 1.5 billion dollars in industrial investment at the Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone this year. Russia committed 2 billion dollars in investments at St Petersburg in June. Singapore signed five bilateral agreements. GDP growth is projected at 5.5% in 2026. Gold, nickel, and gas resources are drawing sustained international attention. Perseus Mining injected 457.7 billion Tanzanian shillings into Tanzanian operations ahead of planned gold output increases. The Lobito Corridor, when complete, will improve Tanzania’s mineral export logistics. The governance situation warrants careful monitoring but has not yet materially disrupted the investment environment outside of reputational considerations for operators with public accountability obligations.

Opportunities: Gold, nickel, and gas extraction and related services. Manufacturing in Bagamoyo and other special economic zones. Agri-processing leveraging significant arable land. Port logistics through Dar es Salaam and Tanga serving landlocked DRC, Zambia, Malawi, and Rwanda. Tourism from a stable and growing sector.

Risks: Democratic governance concerns following the disputed 2025 election. Military deployment against civilian protesters narrows civic space and creates reputational exposure for operators with ESG obligations. Bureaucratic complexity and slow regulatory approvals. Electricity supply gaps outside major urban centres. Currency and foreign exchange access unpredictability.

Operating Tips: Swahili is the national language; English is widely used in business and government. Dar es Salaam is the commercial hub. Government relationships are essential for large projects, particularly in extractives and infrastructure. Community relations investment is expected and valued. The East African Community single customs territory membership eases cross-border trade logistics with Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full Tanzania profile, including IOA's research analysis.

In Brief »

• Nigeria · Energy Policy » Nigeria officially became the first OPEC member to join the International Energy Agency as an Associate on July 3, signalling its recognition that long-term oil producer credibility requires engagement with global energy transition institutions. The membership improves Nigeria’s access to IEA data and forecasting tools and strengthens its positioning with international energy investors evaluating gas infrastructure and renewables alongside oil. ^{Source: Business Tech Africa}

• Kenya · Capital Markets » The Nairobi Securities Exchange added KSh817.2 billion in investor wealth in H1 2026, with market capitalisation reaching a record KSh3.73 trillion by end-June. The gains were driven by a banking-led rally, record June performance, and the listing of Family Bank, the NSE’s biggest private-sector listing since 2009. ^{Source: Kenyan Wall Street}

• South Africa · Economy » South Africa’s private sector returned to expansion in June, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 50.5 from 49.6 in May. Output and new orders grew modestly on improving domestic demand and easing cost pressures. Unemployment rose to 32.9% in Q1, with youth unemployment at 45.7%. The PMI improvement and oil price correction provide two modest positive signals for H2 planning, against a labour market that continues to deteriorate. ^{Source: Business Tech Africa}

• Pan-African · Venture Capital » African startups raised 1.44 billion dollars in H1 2026, a marginal improvement on H1 2025 but well below the 3.21 billion raised in H1 2022. More significant than the total is the structure: only 146 deals were completed, down from 252 in H1 2025. Capital is concentrating in fewer, larger rounds in companies with proven revenue. Early-stage funding has thinned materially across the ecosystem. ^{Source: TechCabal}

• Africa.com · Women and Capital » A new Africa.com analysis examines the structural gap preventing women-led businesses from accessing growth capital, drawing on BCG research showing women-led startups generate twice the revenue per dollar invested yet receive less than 1% of African venture capital. The piece identifies gender-lens funds and blended finance structures as the mechanisms beginning to close the gap. ^{Read on Africa.com}

What Investors Should Watch »

• Section 301 Tariff Determination · Expected by July 24 » Today’s USTR hearings are the last formal public input before a determination. Trade lawyers expect the tariffs to be in place by July 24, when Section 122 authority expires. Companies sourcing from or exporting through the eight named African markets should be modelling the 12.5% cost impact now and evaluating whether supply chain adjustments are warranted before rates take effect.

• Vodacom Medium-Term Targets · July 27 » Vodacom publishes Q1 results around July 27, the first to include Safaricom as a fully consolidated entity. Watch for updated EBITDA guidance reflecting the Safaricom consolidation, capex commitments in Kenya and Ethiopia, and any M-PESA monetisation strategy update. The targets will set the market’s earnings expectations for the enlarged group through FY2027.

• Tanzania Political Situation · Ongoing » Today’s protest response and government actions over the coming days will shape Tanzania’s operating environment assessment for H2 2026. A government that contains unrest without significant escalation maintains a difficult but manageable investment environment. Escalation changes the risk calculus, particularly for operators with public ESG accountability obligations and portfolio companies with significant Tanzania exposure.

Doing Business in Africa

Published weekly by Africa.com
Edition 011 · June 30, 2026

Sources: Sources: Vodacom Group · Connecting Africa · USTR · Business Tech Africa · Mwango Capital · The Exchange Africa · Kenyan Wall Street · TechCabal · White and Case · Africa.com

Country Intelligence: contributed by In On Africa (IOA)

China just rewired Africa's trade finance architecture. Standard Bank and ICBC have been named the Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa, giving businesses in 19 countries direct access to China's onshore financial system for the first time. Simultaneously, Dangote signed a deal to double his refinery to 1.4 million barrels per day, which would make it the world's largest. South Africa's June 30 deadline arrives today as thousands of foreign nationals leave ahead of planned anti-immigrant demonstrations. And Burkina Faso has severed diplomatic ties with France, the most decisive break yet in West Africa's geopolitical realignment. The second half of 2026 is opening with structural force.

Lead Story »

China Names Standard Bank and ICBC as Africa’s Renminbi Clearing Bank. It Covers 19 Countries. It Changes the Cost of Doing Business With China.

The People's Bank of China authorised Standard Bank and ICBC to clear renminbi across Africa on June 26. For businesses trading with China, which is Africa's largest trading partner at $348 billion annually, this is a structural shift in how money moves.

Standard Bank and ICBC have been jointly authorised by China’s central bank to operate as the “Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa,” with capacity to clear yuan across 19 African countries. Standard Bank is the first African-based bank to receive renminbi clearing authorisation, and the joint operation is the first RMB clearing bank named after an entire continent. The move gives African businesses and financial institutions direct access to China’s onshore financial system for the first time, including capital markets and liquidity infrastructure. Practically, it means African companies can now settle trade with Chinese suppliers directly in yuan, bypassing the dollar conversion step that has historically added cost and delay to every cross-border transaction.

The context matters. China-Africa trade reached a record $348 billion in 2025, up 18% year-on-year, and China accounts for 20% of Africa’s global trade, up from 5% two decades ago, according to Afreximbank. Beijing removed all tariffs on African goods from 53 nations on May 1. Standard Bank joined China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System in November 2025, processing $500 million in its first four months. The renminbi clearing authorisation is the next layer. Asian countries are now the preferred trade partners for 35% of businesses in 10 surveyed African markets, up from 24% in 2024. Ecobank is already in advanced discussions with Bank of China for a parallel yuan settlement capability, signalling that the first-mover advantage may be contested. ICBC’s existing 20% stake in Standard Bank adds a layer of complexity to the ownership optics, and the yuan’s limited convertibility outside China remains a structural constraint on full adoption.

This Week »

Energy · Nigeria

Dangote Signs Deal to Double the Refinery to 1.4 Million Barrels a Day. It Would Be the World’s Largest.

Aliko Dangote signed a major equipment deal with Chinese manufacturer XCMG on June 27, targeting a doubling of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s capacity from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028 to 2029. The $400 million XCMG agreement supplies heavy machinery for concurrent developments across refining, petrochemicals, and fertiliser production. At 1.4 million barrels per day, the Lekki facility would become the world’s largest single refinery complex. The refinery already surpassed its original nameplate capacity in June, hitting 700,000 barrels per day in performance testing. Polypropylene capacity is set to rise from 900,000 to 2.4 million tonnes annually. Urea production in Nigeria will triple to 9 million tonnes per year. The expansion adds a long-term capital appreciation case to the Dangote refinery IPO, which is already drawing over $2 billion in pre-IPO demand. A refinery that doubles in capacity by 2029 is a fundamentally different asset than the one currently being priced for listing.

Political Risk · South Africa

South Africa’s June 30 Deadline Arrives. Thousands Are Leaving. The Government Is Watching.

Today is the date anti-immigration groups set for undocumented migrants to leave South Africa, and thousands of foreign nationals have been departing ahead of planned demonstrations. Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe have all organised repatriation support for nationals. Mozambique has confirmed five citizens killed in earlier violence. President Ramaphosa addressed the nation this weekend, warning that immigration enforcement is the state’s responsibility and that vigilantism, intimidation, and violence will not be tolerated. The government has stressed that June 30 is not an official deadline. For investors, the risk calculus is layered. Labour supply disruption in construction, agriculture, and services is already visible. Diplomatic damage with five major African trading partners complicates South Africa’s AfCFTA positioning. Reputational damage from the coverage compounds the challenge of converting the SAIC’s R890 billion in investment pledges into actual project execution. The Mbeki Foundation warned this week that “afrophobia threatens ANC African alliances, which would leave the party isolated.” Mcebisi Jonas issued a sharp public rebuke, calling for a return to a national consciousness that recognises South Africa “is nothing without Africa.”

Geopolitics · West Africa

Burkina Faso Severs Diplomatic Ties With France. West Africa’s Geopolitical Realignment Takes Another Step.

Burkina Faso formally severed diplomatic relations with France this week, completing a pattern: Mali expelled French forces in 2022, Niger in 2023, and now Burkina Faso has formalised its break. All three are members of the Alliance of Sahel States and have aligned with Russia’s African Corps. French commercial ties, development finance, and security guarantees that underpinned investment structures for decades are no longer available across these three markets. The UEMOA currency zone remains intact for now, but the political architecture supporting it is under sustained pressure. Companies with supply chains or financing structures that depend on French institutional relationships in the Sahel should be reassessing.

South Africa enters H2 2026 managing simultaneous pressures that no other major African economy is currently facing. Inflation hit a near two-year high of 4.5% in May as transportation costs surged 9.4% on Middle East conflict fuel costs. The SARB raised rates in late May for the first time in three years. The xenophobia crisis has damaged relationships with at least five African trading partners. And the Ramaphosa impeachment panel adds political uncertainty to a Government of National Unity that was supposed to project stability.

What South Africa retains is depth. The JSE is the continent’s most liquid equity market. The financial services and professional services ecosystem is the most developed in Africa. Casablanca is a credible rival, but in absolute terms of market capitalisation and institutional investor presence, South Africa remains the anchor. Standard Bank, now Africa’s first renminbi clearing bank, is headquartered here. The challenge for investors is separating the structural asset from the cyclical noise.

Opportunities: Financial services and capital markets, mining and minerals processing including platinum group metals and gold, renewable energy as the grid transitions away from coal, infrastructure including logistics, ports and rail, professional services, agri-processing, and technology. The JSE provides the deepest listed equity access on the continent.

Risks: Rising inflation and tightening monetary policy adding borrowing cost pressure. Xenophobia crisis damaging diplomatic relationships and labour supply in key sectors. Political uncertainty from the impeachment process. Persistent infrastructure gaps particularly in electricity and logistics through Transnet. High crime rate affecting business operations and staff security. ANC coalition management risk ahead of local elections.

Operating Tips: English is the primary language of business. Johannesburg is the commercial hub; Cape Town leads in technology and creative sectors. South Africa has the most developed legal system on the continent for commercial disputes. BEE compliance is mandatory for government contracts and is increasingly expected by major private sector clients. Private security is standard for executive personnel. Base operations in secure business districts and factor security infrastructure into operational budgets.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full South Africa profile, including IOA's research analysis.

In Brief »

• Kenya · Fiscal Policy» President Ruto signed Finance Bill 2026 into law on June 23, avoiding the street-level resistance that forced him to withdraw last year's version. The bill passed after the government dropped the most controversial provisions, including a proposed motor vehicle tax. The passage provides fiscal certainty for Kenya's H2 2026 budget but leaves the underlying tension between revenue needs and public tolerance for new taxes unresolved heading into the next cycle. ^{Source: Africa Confidential}

• Uganda · Press Freedom» Uganda's military chief, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, ordered the closure of Nation Media Group outlets including the Daily Monitor and NTV Uganda on June 28, deploying soldiers outside the Daily Monitor offices in Kampala. The move came days after President Museveni began his seventh term. For investors, Uganda's deteriorating press freedom and the concentration of authority in Kainerugaba, widely seen as Museveni's successor, are emerging operational and reputational risk factors in an otherwise growing East African market. ^{Source: OkayAfrica}

• DRC · Health» The DRC's Ebola outbreak has crossed 1,000 confirmed cases, with Saudi Arabia suspending travel to the DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan in response. The outbreak is concentrated in eastern provinces where ADF insurgent activity is intensifying simultaneously, creating a compounding operational challenge for humanitarian responders and mining operators in the region. ^{Source: AllAfrica / UNICEF}

• South Africa · Economy» South Africa's annual inflation rate jumped to its highest level in almost two years in May, driven by surging energy prices fanned by the US-Israeli war with Iran. At 4.5%, headline CPI is now above the SARB's new 3% point target and approaching the upper edge of its 2% tolerance band. Transportation costs rose 9.4%, the single largest contributor. Analysts now expect a further quarter-point SARB hike at the July meeting, to 7.25%, which would represent the peak of the current tightening cycle. ^{Source: Bloomberg / Moneyweb}

• Africa.com · Women and Capital» A new BCG report published on Africa.com finds that women-led startups generate twice the revenue per dollar invested, yet receive less than 1% of venture capital in Africa. The report argues the funding gap is not a risk premium issue but a structural failure of capital allocation, and recommends specific mechanisms including blended finance, gender-lens funds, and corporate procurement quotas to close the gap. ^{Read on Africa.com}

What Investors Should Watch »

• South Africa Xenophobia Crisis · Today → Today's anti-immigrant demonstrations are the next pressure point. Whether the government's security response holds and whether violence remains contained will determine whether this escalates into a broader operating environment disruption or begins to de-escalate. Watch for the government's response in the next 24 hours and whether regional repatriation flights accelerate or slow.

• Dangote IPO Subscription Window · Imminent → The refinery IPO subscription window is targeted for the coming weeks. The XCMG capacity doubling deal adds a growth story to the cash flow story, potentially repricing the offering above the $40 to $50 billion initial valuation. Watch for the NGX listing approval and SEC clearance of the dollar dividend mechanism. Any delay beyond July signals execution risk.

• US USTR Section 301 Tariff Hearings · July 7 → The comment period on proposed 12.5% tariffs against eight African nations closes July 6, with hearings on July 7. Governments and multinationals with US export exposure from the named countries should have submissions in before the deadline. Countries demonstrating credible forced labour prohibition frameworks may qualify for the lower 10% rate.

Doing Business in Africa

Published weekly by Africa.com
Edition 011 · June 30, 2026

Sources: Reuters · CNBC Africa · Moneyweb · Billionaires Africa · OkayAfrica · AllAfrica
Bloomberg · Africa Confidential · Nairametrics · Energy Capital and Power · Africa.com

Country Intelligence: contributed by In On Africa (IOA)

The IMF landed in Dakar on June 15 after a four-month absence. Senegal paid $104 million in Eurobond coupons early to make sure the visit happened. The DRC raised $1.25 billion in its first-ever sovereign bond, four times oversubscribed, by selling the US critical minerals partnership as its credit story. Nigeria's tax reforms are hitting their numbers. And Kenya recorded 94 fuel demonstrations in a single month. Africa's sovereign markets are reopening. Its reforms are producing results. And its citizens are telling governments exactly what the energy crisis costs.

Lead Story »

The IMF Is Back in Dakar. Senegal Paid $104 Million Early to Prove It Belongs There.

The mission is introductory, not substantive. But its arrival, and the $104 million Senegal paid before it landed, are the clearest signals yet that Dakar understands the stakes.

IMF mission chief Mercedes Vera Martin arrived in Dakar on June 15, restarting engagement after the four-month pause triggered by the Sonko dismissal. The visit is introductory: formal talks require consolidated, audited debt data that Senegal has not yet fully provided. But before the mission landed, Dakar made early repayments on two Eurobond coupons totalling $104 million, a deliberate signal of debt service capacity to bond markets.

The backdrop remains difficult. Senegal’s public debt reached 132% of GDP after the discovery of previously undisclosed borrowings. The IMF suspended a $1.8 billion support programme pending full debt clarification. Finance Minister Cheikh Diba, retained through the political transition, has been the continuity figure for international creditors. PASTEF, controlling 130 of 165 National Assembly seats under Sonko, remains the legislative obstacle to any reform package requiring parliamentary approval. The June 30 target for a broad programme agreement, flagged in previous editions, has quietly been allowed to slip. Markets are now watching for whether the mission produces a clear timeline for formal talks rather than an agreement itself.

Why It Matters: The early coupon payments are the clearest signal yet that the Faye government understands the difference between political positioning and market credibility. Paying early when you are cash-constrained is expensive; it is also the most direct message available to bond markets. For investors holding Senegalese sovereign debt, the arrival of the IMF mission and the voluntary coupon prepayment reduce the near-term default risk premium. The medium-term risk remains: any programme requires legislative action that Sonko controls. The path forward runs through a political negotiation that has not yet happened. Watch whether the Faye government uses the IMF visit to create the conditions for that negotiation, or whether it settles for optics over substance.

This Week »

Capital Markets · DRC

The DRC Sold Its First Sovereign Bond Ever. It Used the US Minerals Partnership as the Credit Story. It Worked.

The DRC raised $1.25 billion in its debut sovereign Eurobond in April, the first African sovereign Eurobond debut since 2019. Orders exceeded $5.2 billion across more than 110 global investors, more than four times oversubscribed. The deal: a five-year tranche at 8.75% and a ten-year tranche at 9.5%, listed on the London Stock Exchange. What sold it was the US critical minerals partnership. At roadshows in New York, London, and Paris, Kinshasa presented its minerals deal with Washington. Analysts noted investors viewed heavy US company investment in DRC mining as significantly facilitating claims in the event of a default. The DRC’s low debt ratio of around 20% of GDP and its cobalt and copper reserves were the other pillars. Proceeds go to infrastructure: a Kinshasa airport terminal, roads, and a hydroelectric power plant. Transparency questions on fund use remain. But for a country long treated as uninvestable, four-times oversubscription is a structural milestone.

Fiscal Policy · Nigeria

Nigeria’s Tax Reforms Are Hitting Their Numbers. N2.42 Trillion in VAT and Counting.

Nigeria’s VAT revenue reached N2.42 trillion in the first half of 2026, a significant increase driven by the Tinubu administration’s tax reform agenda, which has broadened the VAT base, reduced exemptions, and strengthened collections enforcement through FIRS. The figure is ahead of targets and represents one of the clearest data points that Nigeria’s structural reforms are producing fiscal results rather than just policy announcements. Combined with the CBN’s exchange rate unification and the Dangote refinery’s impact on fuel import costs, the VAT performance strengthens the government’s hand in presenting a credible fiscal consolidation story to investors. The revenue gain also reduces pressure on domestic borrowing and creates more headroom to fund infrastructure without crowding out private credit. For investors tracking Nigerian sovereign risk, improving fiscal data is the most important near-term variable after the Dangote IPO subscription window.

Political Risk · Kenya

Kenya Had 94 Fuel Demonstrations in May. The Finance Bill Is Next.

Kenya recorded 94 fuel-related demonstrations in May, the largest spike since the Hormuz blockade took effect in April, per ACLED. Public service vehicle operators led road blockades, motorway bonfires, and clashes with security forces. The government cut diesel by KSh10 in June but reduced petrol by only KSh0.22, a response widely seen as insufficient. Finance Bill 2026 is now before parliament. Last year’s equivalent bill triggered the Gen-Z protests that forced Ruto to withdraw it entirely. This year’s version lands against a backdrop of record fuel prices and 94 demonstrations already on the books. The political combustibility is real. Watch the Finance Bill debate this week.

Zambia enters the second half of 2026 in a more stable position than at any point since its 2020 sovereign default. The country completed its Eurobond debt restructuring in late 2023 and has since maintained an IMF-supported programme, with fiscal consolidation broadly on track. Copper production is rising: Zambia produced approximately 780,000 tonnes in 2025 and is targeting over 800,000 tonnes in 2026, benefiting from new investment at First Quantum’s Kansanshi mine, Barrick’s Lumwana operation, and several smaller producers. The Lobito Corridor, when complete, will transform Zambia’s mineral export logistics, reducing dependence on the longer southern route through Zimbabwe and South Africa. The ZCCM Investment Holdings restructuring is ongoing, and the government has signalled interest in greater state participation in new mining projects, consistent with the resource sovereignty trend across the continent.

The August 2026 election is the primary near-term risk. President Hichilema’s UPND government has delivered economic stabilisation and the debt restructuring but has struggled to translate macro gains into visible improvements in living standards. Chatham House notes intensifying social pressures from the failure of macroeconomic stabilisation to reach ordinary Zambians. An opposition upset, while currently not the base case, would create policy uncertainty for mining investors and could complicate the IMF programme relationship. The operating environment outside the political cycle is broadly improving: investor protections have been strengthened, the Zambia Revenue Authority has modernised collections, and the legal system offers reasonable commercial dispute resolution.

Opportunities: Copper and cobalt mining and processing, mining services, Lobito Corridor logistics and trade finance once operational, renewable energy including solar and hydropower, agri-processing in a country with significant arable land and low population density, and financial services for a growing mining workforce.

Risks: August 2026 election creates policy uncertainty for mining investors. Resource nationalism on new mining projects is a stated government preference. Electricity supply constraints continue to affect industrial operations. Kwacha volatility remains a FX management risk. Infrastructure gaps outside the Copperbelt and Lusaka corridors are significant.

Operating Tips: English is the language of business and government. Lusaka is the commercial hub; Ndola and Kitwe anchor the Copperbelt. Community relations investment is essential for mining operations: Zambia has a long history of organised mining labour and community engagement expectations are high. Register with the Zambia Development Agency early for large investment approvals. Build in election-cycle risk buffers for any decision-making timelines running through August.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full Zambia profile, including IOA's research analysis.

In Brief »

• Pan-African · Digital Economy» Africa.com published a major analysis today arguing that Africa is no longer catching up digitally: it is rewriting the rules of digital growth. The piece documents how mobile-first infrastructure, fintech innovation, and AI adoption are creating African-specific digital models that are attracting global capital and talent. Required reading for executives assessing Africa’s digital investment landscape. ^{Read on Africa.com}

• Ghana / Cote d’Ivoire · Trade» Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire agreed to harmonise cocoa farm-gate pricing policies at their High-Level Summit on the Future of the Cocoa Economy in Abidjan on June 16, signed by Presidents Mahama and Ouattara. The deal aligns crop calendars starting September 2026 and commits both countries to price coordination to reduce cross-border smuggling and improve farmer incomes. Plans to expand the initiative to other African cocoa-producing nations were also announced, strengthening the continent’s collective bargaining power with international buyers. ^{Source: Graphic Online}

• Kenya · Infrastructure» Kenya contracted TDB and AFC on June 19 to arrange $1.2 billion in financing for Jomo Kenyatta International Airport’s expansion, targeting a tripling of annual passenger capacity from 7.5 million to 22 million. The project, paused after the Adani cancellation in 2024, is back on track with a revenue-backed financing structure that crowds in DFIs and commercial banks. For Nairobi’s ambition to remain East Africa’s aviation hub against expanding competition from Addis Ababa, Kigali, and Gulf airports, this investment is not optional. ^{Source: CNBC Africa}

• Nigeria · Capital Markets» Femi Otedola acquired 680 million First HoldCo shares through the group’s N45 billion private placement at N44 per share, lifting his stake to 20.42% and making him the largest individual shareholder in any Nigerian banking group. The acquisition came as First HoldCo reported Q1 2026 profit before tax of N321 billion, up 72% year-on-year, with a 31.6% return on equity that leads all five of Nigeria’s largest banks. Otedola has separately disclosed plans to invest $100 million in the Dangote refinery IPO.

  ^{Source: Nairametrics}

• Zimbabwe · Lithium» Zimbabwe lithium producers have formally requested more time from the government to complete mandatory beneficiation plants before export restrictions take effect. Processing capacity takes years and capital to build, and blanket export bans before that capacity exists choke revenue rather than add value. The debate mirrors the DRC’s lithium royalty reclassification and Ghana’s gold offtake demands: resource sovereignty is the direction, but the implementation gap between policy and industrial reality is creating friction across the continent’s mining sector. ^{Source: Ecofin Agency}

What Investors Should Watch »

• Senegal IMF Mission Outcomes → Watch for any statement from the Vera Martin mission on a timeline for formal programme negotiations. A clear roadmap, even without a deal, would stabilise Senegal’s sovereign risk pricing. Silence or vague language keeps the uncertainty premium in place and increases pressure on Eurobond spreads heading into Q3.

• Zambia Election · August 2026 → The election is six weeks away. Mining investors with Zambia exposure should be stress-testing their assumptions against an opposition scenario. UPND’s macro record is strong; the political risk is in the disconnect between GDP growth and lived experience. Watch poll data and civil society signals through July.

• Kenya Finance Bill 2026 → Parliament is debating Finance Bill 2026 this week. Last year’s equivalent bill triggered the Gen-Z protests that forced Ruto to withdraw it. This year’s version arrives against a backdrop of record fuel prices and 94 fuel demonstrations. Any repeat of last year’s street-level resistance would have direct implications for political stability and investor confidence in Kenya heading into H2 2026.

Doing Business in Africa

Published weekly by Africa.com
Edition 010 · June 23, 2026

Sources: Africanews · African Business · The Africa Report · Ecofin Agency · AllAfrica
ACLED · Semafor · Daba Finance · Chatham House · Bloomberg · Africa.com

Country Intelligence: contributed by In On Africa (IOA)

Washington just gave eight African economies six weeks to respond to proposed 12.5% tariffs or face the consequences. Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco are most exposed. The comment period closes July 6 and this audience should not be caught flat-footed. Meanwhile the Dangote IPO has already drawn $2 billion in demand before a single share is offered, Bharti Airtel is buying out its African minority shareholders for $2.9 billion, and Africa's fintech market is on track to be worth $65 billion by 2030. The risk is real. So is the opportunity.

Lead Story »

Eight African Economies Have Six Weeks to Respond to US Tariff Threat. Most Are Not Ready.

The USTR named eight African nations in forced labour investigations that carry real legal weight, unlike the emergency tariffs courts struck down twice. July 6 is the deadline. Most affected governments have not moved.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative released its Section 301 findings on June 2, proposing an additional 12.5% tariff on imports from eight African countries as part of a broader investigation covering 60 economies. The eight named African nations are Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. The USTR found all eight have failed to enforce prohibitions on forced labour goods. A public comment period runs through July 6, with hearings on July 7. The tariffs are not yet in effect.

The exposure is uneven. Egypt is the most vulnerable, with $2.6 billion in annual exports to the US, more than half in textiles and apparel, facing an effective tariff rate increase of 1.9 percentage points to 13.8%. South Africa and Morocco follow in exposure. Nigeria’s exports to the US are more concentrated in oil and petrochemicals, which carry separate regulatory treatment, but manufactured goods would be affected. Countries that commit to a forced labour import ban before the hearings could qualify for the lower 10% rate. Crucially, these tariffs have legal standing that Trump’s earlier emergency tariffs lacked. Both previous attempts were struck down by US courts. Section 301 requires formal consultations and hearings before implementation, making them harder to challenge and more likely to stick.

Why It Matters: These tariffs are not performative. Section 301 carries legal weight that Trump's earlier emergency tariffs did not. Multinationals sourcing from the eight named countries face added cost and compliance complexity starting from the day these take effect. African governments have until July 6 to file comments and until July 7 to make their case at hearings. Countries with credible legislative commitments on forced labour may get the lower 10% rate. Those that do nothing face 12.5%. The clock is running.

This Week »

CAPITAL MARKETS · Nigeria

Dangote IPO Demand Tops $2 Billion Before a Single Share Is Offered. The Window Is Weeks Away.

The NGX Group confirmed this week that investor demand for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO has already exceeded $2 billion ahead of the formal subscription window opening. The offering structure has crystallised: approximately 3 billion ordinary shares at $0.35 per share, implying a total raise of up to $1.05 billion from the retail and institutional subscription window, with the refinery valued at $40 to $50 billion. NGX Chairman Umaru Kwairanga confirmed the exchange is preparing for the listing and is simultaneously advancing the African exchanges linkage project that would allow simultaneous trading across the NGX, JSE, NSE, GSE, Ethiopian Securities Exchange, and BRVM. A dual listing on a global financial centre, likely London, remains under active consideration. The Dangote IPO has become a barometer for African capital market maturity: if the multi-exchange mechanism works at this scale, it establishes a template for future pan-African listings of major industrial assets.

TELECOMS · Pan-African

Bharti Airtel Is Buying Out Its African Shareholders for $2.9 Billion. What Happens to the Airtel Money IPO?

India’s Bharti Airtel has proposed raising its stake in Airtel Africa to as much as 90% in a $2.9 billion buyout of minority shareholders, according to reporting on Africa.com. The move would effectively take Airtel Africa private, removing one of the London Stock Exchange’s most significant African-focused listings. The announcement follows Airtel Africa’s record FY2026 results covered in Edition 005, with profit up 147% and the Airtel Money IPO already delayed to H2 2026. Bharti’s consolidation move raises a pointed question: if India’s parent company is buying out minority shareholders at scale, does it reflect confidence in Airtel Africa’s long-term value or a strategic preference to control the asset without public market scrutiny? For African investors who have held Airtel Africa shares as a proxy for continental telecom exposure, the buyout removes a key listed vehicle. For the Airtel Money IPO narrative, the parent company’s direction of travel is worth watching closely.

TRADE · Tanzania

Singapore to Tanzania: Stop Shipping Raw Minerals. Build the Industry Instead.

Singapore’s President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, on a historic state visit to Dar es Salaam, delivered a pointed message to Tanzania on June 16: raw mineral wealth must be leveraged to build technological capacity, not exported unprocessed. The statement, made at the Tanzania-Singapore Business Forum, directly supports Tanzania’s own stated industrialisation strategy and aligns with the resource sovereignty push running across the continent from Ghana’s gold royalties to the DRC’s lithium reclassification. Singapore and Tanzania signed five bilateral agreements covering tax cooperation, carbon trading, trade facilitation, and digital skills development. Singapore’s engagement, spanning financial services expertise, port logistics, and industrial park development, offers Tanzania a model for value-addition that complements its East African Community free trade ambitions. The visit also produced movement on Tanzania’s application to join the EAC customs union’s single customs territory, which would significantly ease cross-border trade with Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda.

Egypt enters June 2026 as the African country most exposed to Washington’s proposed Section 301 tariffs, with $2.6 billion in annual US exports concentrated in textiles and apparel. The Qualified Industrial Zones, which give Egyptian manufacturers duty-free access to the US market in exchange for incorporating Israeli inputs, are a central part of the country’s export architecture and would be directly affected by any tariff increase. Egypt is also Africa’s most populous country at over 105 million people and one of the continent’s most significant investment destinations: the Suez Canal generates around $9 billion annually, the New Administrative Capital is attracting Gulf and Chinese investment at scale, and the offshore gas sector, anchored by the Zohr field operated by ENI, remains a cornerstone of the country’s hard currency earnings.

The macro environment has stabilised significantly after the March 2024 IMF-anchored adjustment, which included a sharp currency devaluation, interest rate increases, and subsidy reforms. Inflation, which peaked above 40%, has moderated toward 14.5% as of May 2026 though analysts warn it will rise again on electricity price increases. The investment environment offers genuine scale, a large and young domestic market, strategic location bridging Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, and improving infrastructure. Regulatory complexity, bureaucratic opacity, and foreign exchange access remain the primary friction points for foreign operators.

Opportunities: Suez Canal logistics and maritime services, offshore gas and downstream energy, textiles and apparel manufacturing for US and EU markets, New Administrative Capital real estate and infrastructure, fintech and digital financial services for a 105 million-person market, and agri-processing. Gulf sovereign capital is heavily committed to Egypt and provides additional project financing depth.

Risks: US Section 301 tariff exposure on textiles and manufactured goods. Persistent inflation despite moderation. Foreign exchange access constraints, particularly for profit repatriation. Bureaucratic complexity and regulatory unpredictability. High public debt following IMF-adjusted fiscal reforms. Security concerns in Sinai and western desert regions.

Operating Tips: Arabic is the language of government; English is widely used in business. Cairo and Alexandria are the commercial centres. The legal system follows civil law with Islamic law influences and requires specialist local counsel. Free zones and special economic zones offer tax incentives and eased customs procedures. Government relationships are essential for large infrastructure and energy projects. Allow extended timelines for approvals relative to comparable middle-income markets.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full Egypt profile, including IOA's research analysis.

In Brief »

• Ghana · Domestic Capital Ghana is launching a $1 billion domestic bond sale to fund cocoa purchases for the 2026/2027 season, with strong early interest from local investors. The move reflects Ghana’s deliberate strategy to deepen domestic capital markets and reduce reliance on external financing, directly relevant to the IMF programme narrative and to investors tracking the continent’s local currency bond market development. ^{Source: Africa.com}

• Nigeria · Inflation Nigeria’s headline inflation rose for a third consecutive month to 15.93% in May, driven by food prices and the continued pass-through from Middle East conflict-driven fuel cost increases. The CBN held its policy rate at 26.5% at its May meeting. The IMF has advised the CBN to sterilise foreign exchange inflows from higher oil prices to avoid further inflationary pressure. ^{Source: CNBC Africa}

• DRC · Cobalt The DRC’s export restrictions on cobalt hydroxide have triggered global supply shortages and price spikes as battery supply chains come under strain, per the Financial Times. The restrictions, introduced alongside the lithium royalty reclassification covered in Edition 008, are beginning to register in international commodity markets. For battery manufacturers and EV supply chains dependent on Congolese cobalt, the supply disruption compounds the fiscal pressure already created by the higher royalty regime. ^{Source: The Africa Brief / FT}

• East Africa · Shipping Maersk has raised peak season surcharges on shipments to Mombasa and Dar es Salaam, pushing up logistics costs to East Africa’s two primary ports. The increase reflects both seasonal demand and the ongoing Middle East conflict disruption to Indian Ocean shipping routes. For manufacturers, retailers, and importers operating in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and the landlocked markets they serve, the surcharge adds to an already elevated cost base. Operators should factor higher freight costs into H2 2026 supply chain budgets. ^{Source: The Exchange Africa}

• South Africa · Mining Gold and platinum prices jumped on June 15, leading JSE mining shares higher. The move reinforces the structural supply deficit thesis covered in Edition 008: platinum faces a fourth consecutive annual supply shortfall, while gold’s strength reflects continued safe-haven demand amid Middle East uncertainty. For investors with South African mining exposure, the price momentum provides near-term earnings support even as operating cost pressures persist. ^{Source: Business Day SA}

• Kenya · Energy Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority cut diesel by KSh10 per litre at the June adjustment but reduced petrol by only KSh0.22. The asymmetry reflects the different import and refining cost structures for each fuel. Diesel relief is meaningful for logistics, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors. The minimal petrol cut will disappoint urban consumers already stretched by cost-of-living pressure, and puts additional political heat on the Ruto administration ahead of Finance Bill 2026 debates. ^{Source: AllAfrica}

What Investors Should Watch »

• USTR Comment Period · Closes 6 July The July 6 deadline is the single most actionable date for African governments and businesses with US export exposure. Companies sourcing from the eight named countries should be engaging trade lawyers now. Governments that file credible legislative commitments on forced labour prohibition before the deadline stand the best chance of securing the lower 10% rate rather than 12.5%.

• Dangote IPO Subscription Window The formal listing on the NGX is imminent with demand already exceeding $2 billion. Watch for the SEC’s final approval of the dollar dividend mechanism, the confirmed subscription opening date, and any announcement on the London dual listing. The pan-African multi-exchange trading mechanism is the structural test that will define whether this becomes a template or a one-off.

• Senegal IMF Programme · 30 June The June 30 target for a broad programme agreement is under pressure. Faye leading negotiations personally is a positive signal of political commitment, but Sonko’s control of parliament remains the structural constraint. A deal before month-end stabilises Senegal’s sovereign risk position. A miss pushes the crisis into Q3 and increases rating review risk.

Doing Business in Africa

Published weekly by Africa.com
Edition 009 · June 17, 2026

Sources: Business Day Nigeria · This Day Live · African Business · White and Case · Trendtype Africa · CNBC Africa · The Exchange Africa · The Africa Brief · BCG · Financial Times · Africa.com

Country Intelligence: contributed by In On Africa (IOA)

Edition 008 of Doing Business in Africa, published earlier this morning, reported that an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was easing oil prices toward $95 to $96. Since publication, the situation has deteriorated materially.

Iran cut off peace talks with the US last week, sending oil sharply higher. Today, US and Iranian forces exchanged fire for a second day, and President Trump threatened to take total control of Iran’s oil industry. A 60-day ceasefire extension was reportedly agreed by negotiators but has not yet been approved by Trump. Prediction markets currently put the odds of a permanent peace deal by June 15 at 9%.

For African net oil importers, the brief easing we reported this morning is now under direct threat. The fiscal relief scenario outlined in Edition 008 remains contingent on a diplomatic resolution that does not currently appear imminent. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. Budget pressure across South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, and the WAEMU zone should be treated as ongoing, not easing.

We will continue monitoring and update subscribers as the situation develops.

Africa.com

The DRC classified lithium as a strategic mineral this week, tripling royalties as the Manono mine, Africa's first industrial lithium project, prepares to open. Israel and Lebanon agreed a ceasefire on June 4, easing Brent toward $95 to $96 and raising hopes for broader de-escalation, though the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved and the Strait of Hormuz is not yet fully clear. And South Africa's xenophobia crisis escalated, with five African nations repatriating citizens and Ramaphosa ordering a crackdown. The continent's resource sovereignty push is broadening, oil market pressure is cautiously easing, and political risk has shifted south.

Lead Story »

DRC Classifies Lithium as Strategic. Royalties Triple as Africa’s First Industrial Lithium Mine Prepares to Open.

The DRC’s decision to reclassify lithium alongside cobalt and coltan is not just a fiscal adjustment. It is a statement about who controls the economics of the global energy transition.

The Democratic Republic of Congo approved a draft decree this week classifying lithium as a strategic mineral, raising royalties on producers from 3.5% to 10% of gross revenue. Tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, and rare earth elements were added to the higher-tax category simultaneously. The timing is deliberate: Chinese miner Zijin Mining is preparing to begin production at the Manono lithium project in June, which will be Africa’s first industrial-scale lithium mine. Manono sits on one of the world’s largest hard-rock lithium deposits in the DRC’s southeastern province of Tanganyika. The new royalty rate applies from the top line regardless of profitability, functioning as a production tax rather than a profit-sharing arrangement.

The DRC’s move follows a consistent pattern across the continent. Ghana raised gold royalties to a sliding scale reaching 12%. The DRC imposed cobalt export restrictions late last year. Angola is managing its oil windfall under IMF pressure. Ghana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and now the DRC are all renegotiating the fiscal terms under which global capital extracts African mineral wealth. The DRC’s lithium decree is the most consequential of these because of what is at stake: the Manono deposit alone is estimated to contain enough lithium to supply a significant share of global battery demand through the energy transition decade.

Why It Matters: A gross revenue royalty of 10% on a mine that has not yet turned a profit fundamentally changes Manono's financial model. Zijin Mining and its partners will need to recalibrate project economics before the first tonne ships. More broadly, the decree signals that the DRC is aligning its lithium fiscal framework with its cobalt framework, creating a consistent sovereign resource position across the battery minerals that underpin the global energy transition. For investors in DRC minerals, the operating environment now includes a materially higher government take from the top line, and the pattern suggests further reclassifications are possible as global demand for critical minerals intensifies.

This Week »

ENERGY MARKETS · Pan-African

Israel and Lebanon Agree a Ceasefire. Brent Eases. African Importers Watch Carefully.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire on June 4, sending Brent to around $96 and raising hopes for a broader de-escalation of the US-Iran-Israel conflict. The situation remains volatile. The broader US-Iran ceasefire announced in April has been contested throughout: Iran accused the US of violations, Israel continued strikes on Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz was shut again after renewed hostilities in late May. Oil recovered to around $95 to $96 by early June as tensions escalated again before the Israel-Lebanon agreement eased markets slightly. The US House also approved a resolution to curb Trump’s war powers, adding political uncertainty. For African net oil importers, the picture is cautiously improved but far from resolved. South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, and the WAEMU zone have absorbed fuel price increases of 20 to 40% since February. A sustained Brent below $95 would translate into measurable relief at the next adjustment cycles, but with the Strait of Hormuz still not fully cleared and the Iran situation unresolved, that relief remains contingent rather than confirmed.

POLITICAL RISK · South Africa

South Africa’s Xenophobia Crisis Escalates. Five Nations Repatriate Citizens. Ramaphosa Orders Crackdown.

South Africa's anti-immigrant crisis intensified this week as anti-immigration groups gave undocumented migrants until June 30 to leave the country, with vigilante actions against foreign nationals reported in multiple provinces. President Ramaphosa addressed the nation on June 7, warning that immigration enforcement is the responsibility of the state and ordering security forces to act against vigilante groups. Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, and Mozambique have begun repatriating citizens, with Mozambique confirming five nationals killed. The crisis creates multiple layers of investor risk. Labour supply disruption affects construction, agriculture, and services sectors that rely heavily on migrant workers. Reputational damage complicates South Africa's positioning as a destination for international capital following the SAIC pledges. Diplomatic friction with five African trading partners , at a moment when AfCFTA cross-border trade expansion requires cooperative regional relationships , compounds the macro concern. The June 30 deadline set by vigilante groups is the next pressure point.

AVIATION · Morocco / North America

Royal Air Maroc Launches Casablanca to Los Angeles. Africa’s First Nonstop to the US West Coast.

Royal Air Maroc launched the first nonstop air route between Africa and the US West Coast on June 8, connecting Casablanca’s Mohammed V International Airport to Los Angeles International three times weekly. The route is the first nonstop Africa-US West Coast service in aviation history. The timing is commercially pointed: the 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico, began this month, driving substantial travel demand from African nations whose teams have qualified. For business travel, the route creates a new direct corridor between Casablanca Finance City and the US tech and entertainment hubs of California, reducing the previous multi-stop journey by six to eight hours. For Morocco, which is hosting the 2030 World Cup, the Los Angeles route reinforces its connectivity strategy and its position as Africa’s primary gateway to Western markets. Royal Air Maroc’s international network expansion follows Morocco’s broader aviation liberalisation agenda, which has seen passenger volumes grow consistently since the 2000s open-skies agreement with the EU.

No country on earth sits at the intersection of the energy transition and investment risk quite like the DRC. The country holds the world’s largest cobalt reserves, covering more than 70% of global supply. It is home to one of the world’s largest hard-rock lithium deposits at Manono. Its coltan deposits underpin global smartphone and electronics manufacturing. Copper production is surging, with the DRC now rivalling Zambia as a primary source of the metal essential to electrification infrastructure. The structural investment case is unambiguous: the DRC’s mineral endowment is not replaceable. The energy transition cannot proceed at scale without Congolese cobalt and lithium. That gives Kinshasa negotiating leverage it has never previously held, and the government is now using it , through royalty reclassifications, export restrictions, and demands for local processing before export.

The operating environment is among the most challenging on the continent. Security risk is real and material: the eastern DRC remains an active conflict zone, with the M23 rebel movement, backed by Rwanda, controlling significant territory in North and South Kivu. The Manono deposit in Tanganyika province is geographically removed from the eastern conflict but not immune to spillover. Infrastructure outside mining concessions is extremely limited. Corruption is systemic. The legal and regulatory environment shifts without notice, as this week’s royalty reclassification demonstrates. Equity Group is expanding its DRC banking operations, reflecting the genuine commercial opportunity, but operators require experienced local partners, dedicated security infrastructure, and robust community engagement strategies to operate sustainably.

Opportunities: Cobalt, lithium, copper, coltan, and rare earth mining and processing. Mining services and logistics. Financial services as the banking sector expands into underserved mining communities. Renewable energy for mining operations. Agriculture in the Congo Basin, the world's second-largest tropical forest and a significant food production potential.

Risks: Active armed conflict in eastern provinces. Regulatory instability including sudden royalty reclassifications and export restrictions. Systemic corruption at all levels of government and customs. Infrastructure near-absence outside Kinshasa and mining corridors. Currency volatility and limited banking infrastructure. M23 territorial control and Rwanda-DRC diplomatic tensions.

Operating Tips: Local partnerships are essential, not optional. Experienced in-country legal counsel is required before any regulatory engagement. Community relations investment is a prerequisite for operational license in mining areas. Avoid eastern provinces for personnel travel. Budget for dedicated security infrastructure well above regional norms. French is the language of government; Lingala and Swahili are widely spoken. Allow significantly longer timelines than any comparable African market.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full DRC profile, including IOA's research analysis.

In Brief »

• Senegal · IMF Update: IMF staff confirmed this week that the timing of their next visit to Dakar will be guided by "the availability and readiness of the incoming authorities." The statement stops short of confirming the June 8 resumption target has been met, and signals the Fund is waiting for the Lo government to demonstrate cohesion before formal talks resume. Senegal's June 30 target for a broad programme agreement is now under pressure. _Source

• Tanzania · Industrial Investment: Tanzania attracted $1.5 billion in industrial investment commitments this week as development of the long-stalled Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone formally began. Bagamoyo is one of East Africa’s most strategically located industrial sites, positioned on the Indian Ocean coast north of Dar es Salaam with direct access to landlocked regional markets including Zambia, Malawi, and the DRC. The project’s restart after years of delays signals Tanzania’s improving investment environment under President Samia and positions the country as a serious manufacturing destination alongside Ethiopia for cost-competitive industrial operations. _Source

• Tanzania · Geopolitics: Tanzania and Russia agreed on $2 billion in investment commitments at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 9, spanning energy, agriculture, and infrastructure. The announcement reflects Tanzania’s deliberate multi-alignment strategy — Singapore bilateral agreements were signed in Dar es Salaam the same week. For investors, Tanzania’s willingness to court capital from across the geopolitical spectrum reinforces its position as one of East Africa’s most open investment environments, while also illustrating the IOA thesis on African security and trade alignments becoming operational rather than symbolic. _Source

• South Africa · Monetary Policy: The South African Reserve Bank raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 7% in late May, its first rate hike in three years, reversing a cutting cycle that began in 2024. The move reflects persistent inflation from fuel and food price pressures driven by the Hormuz crisis. For investors, a tightening SARB adds borrowing cost pressure to an economy already managing elevated debt and weak manufacturing output. The CBK in Kenya held at 8.75% the same week, providing a more supportive monetary environment for East Africa’s investment cycle. _Source

• South Africa · Mining: Platinum futures fell below $1,700 an ounce this week, the lowest since late November 2025, even as the World Platinum Investment Council projects a fourth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026. Output from South Africa and Russia remains constrained by aging infrastructure, high costs, and sanctions disruptions. The price-supply divergence presents a structural opportunity for investors with patience and a long-dated view on platinum demand from hydrogen fuel cell applications. _Source

• Africa.com · Critical Minerals: Africa.com this week published an analysis of the DRC's lithium royalty reclassification, arguing that the move reflects a continent-wide shift toward sovereign resource control and has direct implications for battery supply chain economics globally. The piece examines the gross revenue royalty structure and what it means for project finance models across DRC mineral assets. _{Read on Africa.com}

What Investors Should Watch »

• Middle East Conflict and Oil Prices: The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire of June 4 has eased Brent modestly toward $95 to $96, but the broader US-Iran conflict remains unresolved. Watch whether the Israel-Lebanon truce holds and whether it creates conditions for broader de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted and shipping insurance costs are still elevated. Sustained Brent below $90 is the threshold where African fuel price relief becomes meaningful at the pump. Any renewed escalation reverses the current easing quickly.

• Senegal IMF Programme · June 30 Target: The IMF’s statement that it is waiting for Dakar to demonstrate governmental readiness effectively resets the clock. The June 30 target for a broad programme agreement is now the critical date. A deal by month-end stabilises Senegal’s bond market position. A miss pushes the fiscal crisis into Q3 and increases the probability of a credit rating review.

• South Africa Xenophobia Crisis · June 30 Deadline: Anti-immigration groups have set June 30 as a departure deadline for undocumented migrants. Whether the government’s security response is sufficient to prevent vigilante escalation before that date will determine whether the crisis remains a reputational and diplomatic issue or becomes a material operating environment disruption for the sectors most dependent on migrant labour.

Doing Business in Africa

Published weekly by Africa.com
Edition 008 · June 11, 2026

Sources: CNBC · CNBC Africa · Business Tech Africa · AllAfrica · OkayAfrica · The Exchange Africa · Africa.com
Country Intelligence: contributed by In On Africa (IOA)

Ghana signed a £215 million growth partnership with the UK in London yesterday, anchored by the Gulf of Guinea's first commercial-scale maritime dry-dock facility. The Dangote IPO subscription window is confirmed for August. And MCB launched a $1 billion trade finance facility for African markets. The constructive news is real — but so is the counterweight. Senegal's political crisis deepened overnight as PASTEF pulled out of the new government and Sonko took control of parliament as speaker, putting the June 8 IMF resumption target in serious doubt.

Lead Story »

Ghana Signs £215 Million UK Growth Partnership. A Maritime Hub Anchors the Deal.

Signed in London yesterday by President Mahama and UK Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, the partnership is Ghana’s most significant bilateral investment agreement with the UK in years — and a signal that West Africa’s most stable democracy is pulling ahead in the competition for international capital.

Ghana signed a UK-Ghana Growth Partnership at an investment summit in London on June 1, with total deals valued at up to £215 million over a 2026 to 2028 roadmap targeting private sector growth, infrastructure, and youth skills. The headline commitment is a £101 million PIDG-backed initiative to build the Gulf of Guinea’s first commercial-scale ship repair and dry-docking facility at Takoradi Port, creating 430 direct jobs. A £6 million partnership supports Ghana’s AI strategy and university technology collaboration. A £4 million programme funds specialist healthcare training. Mahama told assembled investors: “Ghana is open for business. We seek investors prepared to build long-term partnerships grounded in mutual respect, transparency, and shared prosperity.”

The summit covered fintech, digital assets, agribusiness, and critical minerals. The Takoradi facility significantly expands the Gulf of Guinea's dry-docking capacity and reduces costs and turnaround times for the offshore oil and gas sector operating across Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal's emerging fields. The partnership arrives as Ghana’s macro fundamentals have improved markedly: the cedi has stabilised, inflation has moderated sharply from its 2022 to 2023 peak, and the government is on track with its IMF programme.

Why It Matters: The Gulf of Guinea has limited commercial-scale ship repair capacity, with vessels frequently travelling to Las Palmas, Durban, or Singapore for larger dry-docking jobs. The Takoradi facility significantly expands that capacity and reduces costs and turnaround times for the offshore oil and gas sector operating across Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal's emerging fields. For investors, the broader signal is that Ghana under Mahama is systematically closing infrastructure gaps that have historically deterred capital, while its IMF programme adherence provides the macro stability that distinguishes it from neighbours currently in fiscal distress.

This Week »

Political Risk · Senegal

Senegal: PASTEF Pulls Out of New Government. Sonko Controls Parliament. IMF Talks Are Six Days Away.

Ousmane Sonko announced on June 1 that PASTEF will not participate in the new government formed by Prime Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo, just one hour before the 30-member cabinet was unveiled. Finance Minister Cheikh Diba was retained and given an expanded portfolio covering the economy, providing continuity for the IMF negotiations. Three PASTEF members appear to have accepted posts despite Sonko’s announcement. PASTEF controls 130 of 165 National Assembly seats, and Sonko was elected speaker last week with 132 votes, giving him direct control over the legislature. Any reform legislation required by the IMF must pass through an assembly Sonko now chairs. He has publicly opposed IMF debt restructuring on sovereignist grounds. With debt at 132% of GDP and a $1.8 billion programme frozen, the path to a credible reform package before June 30 is narrowing. Watch June 8 as the critical date.

Capital Markets · Nigeria

Dangote IPO: August Subscription Window Confirmed. London Secondary Listing Under Review.

The Dangote IPO timeline has crystallised. The prospectus was filed with Nigeria’s SEC in April. The NGX primary listing is targeted for June to July, with the public subscription window confirmed for August. A London secondary listing, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Standard Bank as advisers, is under active consideration. The offering is approximately 10% of equity at a $40 to $50 billion valuation, with dollar dividends pending final SEC approval. The previous record African IPO was MTN Nigeria in 2019 at $876 million. This targets five to six times that figure.

Geopolitics · United States / Pan-African

US Signals a Fundamental Reset on Africa. Commercial Deals Replace Development Aid as the Frame.

The US announced a fundamental reset of its Africa strategy at the Africa Day Forum in Washington on June 1. Deputy Assistant Secretary Nick Checker outlined an approach under Trump and Rubio defined as a “disciplined, pragmatic, and interest-driven strategy rooted in flexible realism” — shifting from a development-first lens to commercial partnerships and national interest alignment. Future US security assistance will prioritise nations that lead their own security responses. For investors, the implications are direct: DFC financing will follow commercial returns, AGOA’s future is tied to bilateral trade deals rather than multilateral frameworks, and American capital into Africa flows through deal structures rather than grant pipelines. African governments that can present bankable commercial partnerships to Washington are better positioned than those seeking aid relationships.

Development Finance · Pan-African

AfDB Injects $125 Million Into Africa’s Guarantee Platform to Attract Private Capital.

The AfDB will inject $125 million into ATIDI, the African Trade and Investment Development Insurance platform, to become its largest shareholder, AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah confirmed on June 1. The move reflects a deliberate pivot: as development aid from wealthy nations fell nearly 25% last year, the AfDB is shifting toward guarantees and derisking instruments to crowd in private capital. The AfDB Annual Meetings in Brazzaville simultaneously released the African Economic Outlook 2026, projecting stronger average GDP growth despite global uncertainty. For investors, the ATIDI injection is actionable: more guarantee capacity means more derisked structures for infrastructure, trade finance, and energy transactions. The AfDB under Ould Tah is repositioning from lender of last resort to catalyst for private capital at scale.

Ghana enters June 2026 as one of West Africa's most active investment destinations. President Mahama's Reset Agenda has combined fiscal discipline, IMF programme adherence, and aggressive international outreach, culminating in this week's London summit. The cedi has stabilised, inflation has moderated sharply from its 2022 to 2023 peak, and offshore oil at Jubilee and TEN continues. The gold sector is where complexity is highest: the combination of a 30% central bank offtake requirement, sliding-scale royalties up to 12%, GoldBod gatekeeping, a December 2026 local contractor deadline, and the Damang localisation represents a comprehensive reset of the sector's fiscal and operational framework. Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti, and Zijin are recalibrating financial models in real time. Outside extractives, the operating environment is broadly favourable with a functional legal system and an independent judiciary.

Opportunities: Gold and critical minerals services, offshore oil and gas at Jubilee and TEN fields, maritime infrastructure linked to Takoradi port expansion, fintech and digital financial services in Accra, agri-processing including cocoa and cashew value chains, and manufacturing for the ECOWAS regional market. The UK partnership opens additional entry points in AI, health, and education services.

Risks: Gold sector resource sovereignty reforms are compressing margins across all major operators and create uncertainty for new investment decisions. Government procurement can be slow and opaque. External debt remains elevated despite IMF programme progress. Cocoa sector structural issues persist. Labour relations in mining are under strain following the Damang transition.

Operating Tips: English is the language of business and government. Accra is the commercial hub; base regional West Africa operations here for English-speaking market access. The legal system follows common law and is functional for commercial disputes. Free zones at Tema and Sekondi-Takoradi offer duty-free and tax-incentivised platforms. Build relationships with the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre early for large-project approvals. Local partnerships are valued particularly in the extractives sector.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa series. Read the full Ghana profile, including IOA's research analysis.

In Brief »

• DRC · Banking: Equity Group confirmed plans to establish two insurance businesses in the DRC, deepening its push into what has become the group’s most profitable market outside Kenya. Equity BCDC is now the DRC’s second-largest bank, with 2025 profit up 58% to KSh24.7 billion, the fastest absolute profit growth of any subsidiary in the group. The insurance expansion follows the corridor banking logic driving Equity’s Angola and Mozambique acquisition hunt. Source

• Mauritius · Trade Finance: Mauritius Commercial Bank launched a $1 billion trade finance facility on June 1, covering working capital, letters of credit, and structured trade solutions for SMEs across Africa. The move reinforces Mauritius’s ambition as Africa’s offshore financial centre and arrives as AfCFTA and Lobito Corridor trade flows generate rising demand for continental trade finance instruments. Source

• South Africa · Politics: A parliamentary impeachment panel sat for the first time on June 1 to hear a motion against President Ramaphosa linked to the Phala Phala farm scandal. The proceedings add political uncertainty to an economy still trying to convert the SAIC’s R890 billion in investment pledges into ground-level activity. Source

• East Africa · Shipping: Somali piracy has returned, fuelled by political turmoil, aid cuts, and the Iran war’s disruption to Indian Ocean shipping lanes, according to new reporting from AllAfrica. For operators and investors moving goods through East African ports and the Indian Ocean corridor, the resurgence is a live security and insurance cost risk that was largely absent for the past decade. Source

• Nigeria · Energy: Oando has set June 12 as the date for its long-delayed 2025 audit, resolving a governance overhang that has weighed on the stock since the company completed its acquisition of Nigerian Agip Oil Company’s upstream assets. The audit date gives investors and lenders a clearer timeline for normalised financial reporting from one of Nigeria’s largest indigenous oil producers. Source

• Africa.com · Fintech: Africa.com reports that the 7th Africa FinTech Forum will convene in Nairobi on June 10, bringing together fintech leaders, regulators, and innovators to address financial inclusion, digital assets, and next-generation payment systems. The forum’s timing reflects Nairobi’s consolidating position as the continent’s fintech regulatory and innovation hub, a week ahead of the Dangote IPO listing window. Read on Africa.com

What Investors Should Watch »

• Senegal IMF Talks · Week of June 8: The June 8 resumption target is now the most consequential single date in Senegal’s economic calendar. Watch whether Finance Minister Diba can present a credible reform programme with Sonko controlling parliament. A failed or deferred resumption would widen Eurobond spreads and could trigger a credit rating review. A successful resumption with even partial legislative backing would stabilise the investment case.

• Dangote NGX Listing · June to July: The primary NGX listing is now weeks away. Watch for the formal listing approval from the Nigerian Exchange and any SEC commentary on the dollar dividend mechanism, which remains pending final regulatory sign-off. The London secondary listing decision will also likely be confirmed in this window.

• Ghana Gold Sector Negotiations: The Chamber of Mines and Bank of Ghana remain in unresolved talks on the 30% offtake demand and pricing terms. A resolution before the December contractor deadline would remove a significant uncertainty for Newmont and AngloGold Ashanti’s operating plans through 2027. A breakdown triggers a formal dispute process.

Doing Business in Africa

Published weekly by Africa.com
Edition 007 · June 2, 2026

Sources: Reuters · France 24 · CNBC Africa · Graphic Online · Ghana News Agency
Business Day Nigeria · Business Tech Africa · Billionaires Africa · Morocco World News
Kenyan Wall Street · Daba Finance · Zedcrest Wealth · GBC Ghana Online
Country Intelligence: contributed by In On Africa (IOA)

Senegal's government collapsed on Friday when President Faye fired Prime Minister Sonko and dissolved the cabinet, fracturing the alliance that brought both men to power in 2024. With a frozen IMF programme, a $13 billion debt load, and a fuel subsidy bill threatening to blow its budget, the timing is damaging. Across the week, the Kigali CEO Forum closed with nearly $2 billion in deals, Dangote moved to block the Nigerian state from interfering with his refinery ahead of his IPO, and Ghana escalated its gold resource nationalism push. The continent's ownership agenda is advancing on multiple fronts simultaneously — and not always smoothly.

Lead Story

Senegal’s Government Collapses. A Frozen IMF Deal and $13 Billion in Debt Now Have No Clear Owner.

President Faye’s dismissal of Prime Minister Sonko on May 22 ended one of West Africa’s most celebrated political alliances. It also landed Senegal deeper in a fiscal crisis it was already struggling to manage.

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye dismissed Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and dissolved the entire government on May 22, via a presidential decree read on state television. The outgoing cabinet was tasked with handling day-to-day affairs. No successor has been named. The split had been months in the making, driven by a fundamental disagreement over economic management: Faye was moving toward IMF-backed structural reform and debt restructuring; Sonko, who dominated parliament through the PASTEF party, refused. Hours before his dismissal, Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told parliament that Senegal expected to resume IMF talks by June 8 and hoped to agree on key structural reforms by June 30. He also warned that Senegal’s fuel subsidy bill could exceed its 2026 budget allocation by as much as $2 billion if oil prices reached $115 per barrel. Sonko had blocked the finance minister’s request to raise fuel prices.

The fiscal position is serious. The IMF froze a $1.8 billion lending programme after discovering that Senegal’s debt had been misreported by the previous government, pushing actual public debt to 132% of GDP. Sonko had opposed any restructuring of that $13 billion debt load. His PASTEF party still dominates the National Assembly, meaning a new government will need to negotiate with a parliament controlled by the man just fired. The parliament speaker resigned in solidarity with Sonko the same evening. Students marched in Dakar through the night.

» BANKING · South Africa/Pan-African

Standard Bank Is Now Africa’s Most Valuable Bank. The Pan-African Banking Race Has a New Leader.

Standard Bank overtook Capitec and FirstRand this week to become Africa’s most valuable bank, reaching a market capitalisation of R517 billion. The milestone caps a period of aggressive expansion: Standard Bank is building out its pan-African deal advisory and transaction banking capabilities in parallel with Absa, which has been raiding Rothschild, Deutsche Bank, and Standard Bank’s own ranks to rebuild its investment banking bench. Nedbank completed its acquisition of a stake in NCBA Group earlier this month, extending its East African footprint. All three South African banking groups are converging on the same thesis — capturing the African deal-flow advisory and transaction banking business that has historically been split between Johannesburg, London, Paris, and Lagos boutiques. The structural prize is significant: as the Lobito Corridor, the Dangote IPO, and cross-border AfCFTA trade flows generate more large-ticket African transactions, the institution that controls the advisory and financing mandates controls the economics of the continent’s growth cycle. Standard Bank’s R517 billion valuation is the current scorecard, but the race is far from over.

» ENERGY · Nigeria

Dangote Blocks NNPC and Sues the Government Over Import Licences. The IPO Is Weeks Away.

The week produced two significant Dangote refinery developments. First, Dangote publicly rejected NNPC’s bid to increase its 7.25% stake in the $20 billion Lekki refinery, stating the equity would instead be spread broadly through the pan-African IPO. The rejection, disclosed in an interview with the CEO of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund Nicolai Tangen, locks in the cap table ahead of the offering and removes meaningful ambiguity about state shareholder presence post-IPO. Second, Dangote filed a new lawsuit at the Federal High Court in Lagos seeking to cancel petrol import licences issued to six marketers and NNPC on May 6, arguing the approvals violate an existing court order. The refinery was supplying more than 90% of Nigeria’s domestic petrol in February, running at 99.12% of its 650,000-barrel capacity. The lawsuit lands at a commercially critical moment: the IPO subscription window is targeted for June to July, and litigation against the Nigerian government is now a live prospectus risk item. The Nigerian Pension Commission separately waived its own rules this week to allow pension funds to participate in the Dangote IPO, a significant broadening of the domestic investor base for the offering.

» MINING · Ghana

Ghana Demands 30% of Miner Output for Central Bank Reserves. The Industry Is Pushing Back.

Ghana has formally asked large-scale gold miners to sell 30% of annual output to the Bank of Ghana, up from 20%, as part of its GANRAP reserve-building programme targeting 157 metric tonnes of gold and 15 months of import cover by 2028. Gold reserves currently stand at 19.2 metric tonnes. The Ghana Chamber of Mines CEO Kenneth Ashigbey said negotiations remain unresolved: miners oppose the volume-based discount structure, object to zero valuation for silver by-products in dore alloys, and are requesting a phased increase rather than an immediate jump. When combined with the sliding-scale royalty reform reaching up to 12%, the GoldBod export gatekeeping requirement, the December 2026 local contractor deadline, and the Damang mine localisation, Ghana’s gold sector is now subject to the most comprehensive resource sovereignty renegotiation in its history. For Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti, Zijin, and other operators, the combined effect of these measures represents a material compression of operating margins that will require significant financial model recalibration.

Senegal was, until this week, one of West Africa’s most compelling medium-term investment stories. The country’s first offshore oil production began at the Sangomar field in mid-2024, operated by Woodside Energy, with peak output of 100,000 barrels per day. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, a joint development with Mauritania operated by BP and Kosmos Energy, began production in 2025 and is expected to generate several hundred million dollars annually in LNG export revenue. For an economy of 18 million people with a 2024 GDP of approximately $32 billion, this is transformational. Dakar has positioned itself as a regional financial and tech services hub, with the UEMOA monetary union providing currency stability through the CFA franc’s euro peg.

The political crisis of May 22 has temporarily overshadowed that investment case. The structural risk for foreign operators is not the dismissal itself, but the fiscal and governance vacuum it creates at the precise moment Senegal needs IMF programme resumption to stabilise its debt position. Debt at 132% of GDP, a frozen $1.8 billion IMF programme, and a parliament controlled by the opposition create the conditions for delayed decision-making, policy reversals, and investor uncertainty. The gas sector, where contracts and fiscal regimes were negotiated under the previous and current governments, is relatively insulated by its international legal frameworks. But any new investment decisions, particularly in downstream and services, will be deferred until a functioning government is in place and the IMF programme is back on track.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa country profiles by IOA. Read the full Senegal profile.

• South Africa · Infrastructure BlackRock’s Adebayo Ogunlesi told President Ramaphosa at the BlackRock South Africa Infrastructure Investment Summit in Cape Town that the firm’s $28 billion in South Africa assets is set to grow. Ogunlesi said private capital is ready to finance large-scale infrastructure but requires clearer regulatory frameworks and faster procurement processes. The summit signals that global private infrastructure capital views South Africa as a priority market at a time when the country’s investment conference pledges need private capital to execute. Source

• South Africa · Mining Patrice Motsepe’s African Rainbow Energy announced new continental renewable energy investments this week, extending his positioning across mining, renewable energy, and digital banking through GoTyme simultaneously. Norway’s $1.9 trillion sovereign wealth fund also acquired a 5% stake in Motsepe’s ARM, the first Norwegian SWF direct equity position in a South African mining company. Source

• Nigeria · Capital Markets Nigeria’s National Pension Commission waived its standard investment rules to allow pension funds to participate in the Dangote refinery IPO, significantly broadening the domestic investor base for what would be Africa’s largest-ever equity offering. The waiver signals the government’s institutional support for the offering even as Dangote pursues litigation against the regulatory authority. Source

• Pan-African · Mining Egyptian tycoon Naguib Sawiris backed a new pan-African mining venture targeting gold and critical minerals this week, deploying capital at a moment when AngloGold Ashanti has doubled to a $50 billion valuation and Gold Fields has doubled to $39.8 billion. The gold cycle is reshaping African mining equity at a structural level. Source

• Africa.com · Geopolitics A new IOA analysis published on Africa.com argues that Africa’s security environment is no longer a background condition for investors — it is being actively negotiated as part of trade and economic partnerships. African states are integrating security priorities into bilateral agreements with China, the Gulf, the US, and Russia, demanding practical military assistance rather than symbolic pacts. The DRC’s insistence that mineral trade will remain constrained until long-standing security threats are eliminated is the clearest example: foreign trade partners must now address security as a condition of market access. For investors pricing African country risk, the alignment choices governments are making now will shape operating environments for the next decade. Read on Africa.com

• Senegal IMF Resumption · Week of June 8 Finance Minister Diba confirmed June 8 as the target date to resume IMF talks before his government was dissolved. Whether Faye can form a functioning cabinet and present a credible reform team to the IMF before that date will determine whether Senegal’s debt trajectory stabilises or deteriorates through Q3. A failed resumption would pressure Senegal’s Eurobond spreads and risk rating action.

• Dangote IPO Subscription Window · June to July The refinery IPO remains on track for a June to July subscription opening across six African exchanges. Watch for the SEC prospectus approval and whether the ongoing litigation against the Nigerian government becomes a material disclosure item in the final prospectus. The pension fund waiver confirms domestic institutional support. The outstanding question is international allocation appetite.

• Ghana Gold Negotiations The Ghana Chamber of Mines and the Bank of Ghana remain in unresolved negotiations over the 30% offtake demand and pricing terms. A breakdown in talks could trigger a formal dispute mechanism and delay the GANRAP reserve-building timeline. A deal sets the commercial template for how Ghana’s gold sector operates through 2028, affecting all major operators including Newmont and AngloGold Ashanti.risk in the most watched African capital markets event of the decade.

This Week’s Sources: Reuters · Al Jazeera · France 24 · Financial Afrik · CNBC Africa · Billionaires Africa · Vanguard Nigeria · The Punch · Channels Television · NewsGhana · Capital Ethiopia ·
US News · GBC Ghana · Susinsight · AllAfrica · In On Africa (IOA)

Nairobi hosted the most consequential Africa-Europe diplomatic gathering in a decade this week, as 30 heads of state joined France's Macron to push for a fundamental rethink of how global capital prices African risk. At the same time, Africa's two largest listed telecom operators reported their strongest results in years, Dangote announced plans to move into power generation at a scale Nigeria has never seen, and oil prices began to ease on signals of a possible US-Iran deal. The investment picture is shifting faster than the headlines suggest.

Nairobi Summit Puts Africa’s Risk Premium in the Dock. Macron and 30 Heads of State Demand a Rethink.

The Africa Forward Summit opened today in Nairobi with a central argument: the way global capital markets price African risk is wrong, and it is costing the continent billions in unnecessary borrowing costs and deterred investment.

The inaugural Africa Forward Summit, co-hosted by Kenyan President Ruto and French President Macron at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi today and tomorrow, brings together over 30 heads of state, the UN Secretary-General, and delegations from more than 30 African nations. The summit’s mandate is concrete commitments, not declarations. Eleven bilateral agreements were signed on the sidelines before the summit even opened, including a KSh12.5 billion Nairobi commuter rail deal and a KSh104 billion logistics joint venture. On the summit’s first day, President Ruto signed three major investment bills into law: the Income Tax Amendment, the Special Economic Zones Act, and the Technopolis Act, all designed to restructure Kenya’s tax regime for foreign capital.

The central argument from African delegations is direct. Kenya’s Foreign Minister Mudavadi told Reuters: “Africa has always been regarded as a high-risk area. Access to credit has always been pegged at higher interest rates. We need to have a situation where financial markets start looking at Africa differently.” The Middle East conflict, he noted, demonstrates that risk is global, and Africa should not be judged disproportionately. France regularly convenes summits with African states, but this is the first held in an Anglophone country, a deliberate choice signalling a reset in how France approaches its Africa relationship.

» TELECOMS · Pan-African

Airtel Africa Posts $813 Million Profit, Up 147%. Data and Mobile Money Now Lead.

Airtel Africa posted FY2026 profit after tax of $813 million, up 147% year-on-year, on revenue of $6.4 billion, its highest ever. The primary driver was Nigeria, where constant currency revenue grew 47.5% following last year’s tariff adjustments, and data, which is now the largest single contributor to group revenue. Airtel Money customers grew 21.3% to 54.1 million, with annualised transaction value up 49% to $215 billion in Q4. The Airtel Money IPO, previously targeted for H1 2026, has been pushed to H2 due to market conditions from the Middle East conflict. The results confirm a structural shift: Airtel Africa is no longer a voice telecom operator with a mobile money side business. Data and Airtel Money now define its growth trajectory, and the financials reflect it across all 14 markets.

» TELECOMS · Kenya / Ethiopia

Safaricom’s Record KSh80 Billion Dividend Signals Ethiopia Is Turning the Corner.

Safaricom reported net income of KSh99.7 billion for FY2026, up 67%, and declared a record KSh80.1 billion dividend, the largest corporate dividend in Kenya’s history and the first increase since FY2022. M-PESA contributed 45% of Kenya service revenue, growing 13.4% year-on-year. The structural story is Ethiopia: Safaricom’s Ethiopian operation, which has consumed capital for three years, is now approaching EBITDA breakeven. Losses halved year-on-year, service revenue grew 58%, and the customer base grew 54% to 13.6 million. EBITDA breakeven is targeted for FY2027. The Ethiopia operation also secured a new 25-year unified licence from the Communications Authority, removing a long-standing regulatory overhang. For investors, the implication is direct: Safaricom Kenya is already the most profitable company in East and Central Africa. Ethiopia, once the drag, is becoming the growth story.

» ENERGY · Nigeria

Dangote Announces 20,000MW Power Project. The Ambition Is Real. The Constraints Are Too.

Aliko Dangote announced plans to enter Nigeria’s power sector with a 20,000-megawatt generation target, disclosed during a conversation with IFC Managing Director Makhtar Diop in Washington on May 6. Nigeria currently generates 4,000 to 4,500 megawatts against a national grid capacity of over 13,000MW, with the gap costing the economy an estimated $29 billion annually. If delivered, Dangote’s project would represent more than four times current actual generation. No timeline or site details have been published. Analysts note that the project’s most immediate obstacle is not capital, where Dangote’s group reports strong cash flow, but Nigeria’s fragile transmission network, which cannot sustain more than 8,000MW without risk of grid collapse. A more immediate framing is that Dangote will likely begin by securing power for his own industrial sites, the Lagos refinery, the Lekki fertiliser complex, and cement plants, before any ambition for the national grid. The announcement follows a pattern: Dangote identifies a structural constraint on African industrial growth, then commits capital to remove it. The refinery took a decade. The power project, if it proceeds, will take at least as long.

» OIL MARKETS · Continent-Wide

Oil Prices Pull Back on US-Iran Peace Signals. African Importers Watch Closely.

Brent crude fell to around $98 to $100 per barrel this week after reports that the US and Iran were nearing an initial memorandum of understanding, mediated through Pakistan. If confirmed, a ceasefire opens the path to Hormuz mine clearance and gradual shipping resumption. For African net oil importers, any sustained price reduction directly eases fiscal pressure. The reversal is not assured: the MOU has not been signed, prices remain 30% above pre-war levels, and past US-Iran diplomacy has collapsed before. But the directional shift matters. African finance ministers who arrived at the IMF Spring Meetings bracing for $110-plus oil now have a plausible scenario in which their Q3 budgets hold.

Ethiopia is having a breakout investment year. The country secured $13 billion in investment deals in 2026, more than any other African nation, with China as the primary source of capital. The Dangote Group has begun establishing a Kenya-linked investment vehicle that includes Ethiopia as a target market for minerals and industrial supply chain development. Safaricom’s Ethiopian operation, once the group’s most significant financial drag, is approaching EBITDA breakeven and growing at 58% service revenue year-on-year, demonstrating what scale and regulatory stabilisation can do in a market of 130 million people. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is fully operational, positioning Ethiopia as a potential power exporter to neighbouring countries and giving the industrial sector a more reliable energy foundation.

The investment environment is complex. Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous country and its fastest-growing major economy, but foreign ownership restrictions in key sectors, banking, telecoms, and retail, remain significant. The Ethiopian Investment Commission requires a business plan or project outline and a capital commitment of $150,000 to $200,000 depending on sector, for foreign company registration. Political risk is real: regional separatist movements, ethnic tensions, and the ongoing Tigray peace process create operational uncertainty, particularly outside Addis Ababa. The government is actively dismantling some of the legacy capital thresholds in trade and retail as part of a broader liberalisation agenda, but implementation is uneven.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa country profiles by IOA. Read the full Angola profile.

• Nigeria · Capital Markets Dangote is setting up a Kenya investment vehicle ahead of the pan-African refinery IPO, offering African investors dollar-denominated returns and tradeable exit certificates. The World Bank Group has pledged full support for the offering structure. The IPO targets a $5 billion raise at a valuation of up to $50 billion. Source

• Fintech · Pan-African Minipay, the Opera-backed stablecoin payments app, crossed 15 million activated wallets, up 123% year-on-year, with the majority of users in Africa. The milestone makes Minipay one of the most widely used stablecoin payment products in emerging markets and reflects accelerating digital financial services adoption across the continent. Source

• Remittances · UK / Africa LemFi announced a strategic £100 million investment into its global infrastructure and designated London as its international hub, positioning the African diaspora remittance platform for broader expansion into European and North American corridors that serve African markets. Source

• South Africa · Fuel Prices South Africa's petrol price rose by R3.27 per litre and diesel by R6.19 per litre at the May adjustment, the steepest single-month increase in years, driven directly by the Hormuz crisis-driven oil price surge. The increases compound pressure on household budgets and manufacturing input costs at a time when the economy is growing at just 1.5% and the IMF has flagged downside risk. For investors, the fuel price trajectory is now the most direct transmission mechanism between the Middle East conflict and South Africa's consumer, logistics, and food sectors. Source

• Africa.com · Business Development Africa.com has published a practical guide to navigating Africa's business development landscape in 2026, arguing that the organisations succeeding across African markets are those that treat BD as a strategic intelligence function, not a sales afterthought. Required reading for any executive planning entry or expansion this year. Read on Africa.com

• Nairobi Declaration · Tuesday May 13 → The Africa Forward Summit closes tomorrow with the adoption of the Nairobi Declaration. The specific commitments on credit rating reform, private capital mobilisation, and the financial architecture agenda will determine whether this summit produced actionable outcomes or aspirational language. Watch for any G7 Evian pre-commitments embedded in the text.

• US-Iran Peace Framework → Reports of a one-page MOU between the US and Iran are circulating but unconfirmed. If signed, the timeline for Hormuz mine clearance and shipping resumption becomes the next key variable. Brent below $95 sustained would meaningfully ease Africa's import-driven fiscal stress. Watch for confirmation or collapse of the framework this week.

• Dangote Refinery IPO Prospectus → The SEC prospectus submission is imminent, with the roadshow expected in May and a June to July listing target. The prospectus will confirm the float size, exchange allocation across six African markets, and the regulatory approval status of the dollar dividend structure. Any delay signals execution risk in the most watched African capital markets event of the decade.

This Week’s Sources: Reuters · CNBC Africa · Times Live · Business Day Nigeria · This Day Live · Connecting Africa · Kenyan Wall Street · Business Tech Africa · The Exchange Africa · Brand Impact Nigeria · Economy Post · Africa Forward Summit Official Site · Rio Times Africa Pulse · Channels Television · In On Africa (IOA)

China dropped tariffs for 53 African nations on May 1 in the most significant trade policy shift affecting the continent in years. At the same time, the Lobito Corridor moves from planning to financing, Equity Group is following trade routes south, and a South African consortium has taken over one of the world's most troubled nickel mines at a price that reflects the seller's pain. The thread running through all of it: who owns the assets, who controls the trade routes, and who finances the next phase of African growth.

China Drops Tariffs for 53 African Nations. The Question Is Whether Africa Can Convert Access Into Industry.

Effective May 1, China became the first major economy to offer unilateral zero-tariff treatment to all African countries with which it has diplomatic relations. The policy is significant. Its limitations are equally so.

China’s zero-tariff policy now covers 53 African nations, up from 33 least-developed countries that received full access in December 2024. Eswatini is excluded for its recognition of Taiwan. The policy runs to April 2028. China-Africa trade hit $348 billion in 2025, up 17.7%, with Q1 2026 at $94.6 billion, up 23.7%. The timing is deliberate: Beijing announced on April 28 as the US enforced an Iran blockade and African finance ministers confronted a worsening energy shock in Washington. China is positioning itself as trade liberaliser at the precise moment the US is perceived to be closing doors.

» CRITICAL MINERALS · Angola/DRC/Zambia

Lobito Corridor Moves to Finance. $3 to $5 Billion in Talks with Citi, Standard Bank, and Ecobank.

The Africa Finance Corporation is in advanced talks with at least ten lenders, including Citi, Standard Bank, Absa, and Ecobank, to raise $3 to $5 billion for the Lobito Corridor construction phase. The US-backed railway links copper and cobalt mines in the DRC and Zambia to Angola’s Atlantic port of Lobito. AFC plans to launch the formal financing in Q3 2026, targeting financial close in Q4 2027 and completion by 2030. Nine engineering firms, primarily European, have submitted bids due to open within weeks. When complete, the corridor is projected to increase transport capacity tenfold and cut mineral export costs by 30%. Angola’s sovereign wealth fund and Zambia’s Industrial Development Corporation will each take 10% equity stakes.

» BANKING · Kenya/Southern Africa

Equity Group Targets Angola, Zambia, and Mozambique. The Logic Is the Lobito Corridor.

Kenya’s Equity Group is pursuing acquisitions in Angola, Zambia, and Mozambique, CEO James Mwangi confirmed to Reuters this week, following record FY2025 profits of KSh75.5 billion with 51% now earned outside Kenya. The strategy is corridor logic, not geographic ambition. “It’s not just about countries, it’s about following our customers and following trade routes.” Angola sits at the Atlantic end of the Lobito Corridor; Mozambique is the gateway for minerals flowing to Asian markets. Angola is the most advanced target, with Equity in talks for a majority stake in an undisclosed Angolan bank before year-end. The DRC, where Equity holds a 24% market share after two acquisitions, is the playbook.

» MINING · Madagascar

Sumitomo Pays $418 Million to Exit Madagascar’s Ambatovy Mine. A South African Consortium Steps In.

Sumitomo is paying $418 million to exit Madagascar’s Ambatovy nickel mine after $3 billion invested and $2.6 billion in cumulative losses. The buyer is a Jersey-registered consortium led by former Glencore nickel head Jason Kluk and South African billionaire Sandile Zungu’s Zico firm. Korea’s KOMIR retains its 45.83% stake. The deal closes by September 2026. Ambatovy produced 28,000 tonnes of nickel and 2,500 tonnes of cobalt in 2024, well below capacity, and operations were again suspended in February following Cyclone Gezani, with restart expected between May and June. Sumitomo’s distress price gives the new consortium a low-cost entry into a battery minerals asset at a moment of structurally rising nickel and cobalt demand. Whether they can stabilise what Sumitomo could not is the open question.

Angola sits at the centre of two of this edition’s biggest stories. The port of Lobito is the Atlantic exit point for the Lobito Corridor, carrying copper and cobalt from the DRC and Zambia to global markets, and Angola’s sovereign wealth fund is taking a 10% equity stake in the project. Separately, Luanda’s 2026 budget was built on a $61 oil reference price. Brent is above $108. How Angola manages that windfall will define its fiscal credibility with bond markets through the rest of the decade.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria, Angola has improved its business environment meaningfully since President Lourenco’s 2017 reforms, opening sectors to private participation and reducing state dominance. The Lobito Corridor shifts the investment thesis from a pure oil play to a logistics and minerals gateway economy. Risks remain real: corruption, slow bureaucracy, limited infrastructure outside Luanda, and a legal system requiring specialist navigation.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa country profiles by IOA. Read the full Angola profile.

• GHANA · MINING Damang Gold Mines Limited sold its entire first output of 110 kilograms, worth approximately $11.8 million, directly to Ghana's central bank reserves. A symbolic and commercial milestone for Ghana's mining localisation agenda. Source

• ANGOLA · FISCAL WINDFALL Angola budgeted at $61 oil; Brent is above $108. The IMF is urging oil exporters to save windfalls rather than spend them. Bond markets will be watching. Source

• NIGERIA · TELECOMS MTN Nigeria posted Q1 2026 profit after tax of N355.5 billion, up 166% year-on-year, on revenue of N1.5 trillion, the highest quarterly figure since 2019. EBITDA margin expanded to 55.3%, in line with medium-term guidance. The result signals that Nigeria's reform-driven macro stabilisation is translating into real earnings recovery for large-cap operators, and raises expectations for a materially higher dividend in 2026. Source

• KENYA · FINTECH Yuno partnered with Flutterwave to give global businesses easier access to African payment rails, reinforcing Flutterwave's position as the infrastructure layer for international merchants entering African markets. Source

• AFRICA.COM · STRATEGY A new Africa.com analysis by In On Africa argues that business development in Africa has become something distinct from sales: a continuous, insight-driven process of reading policy direction, mapping stakeholders, and structuring partnerships before attempting scale. The piece draws on Flutterwave's country-by-country regulatory strategy and BasiGo's public-private partnership model in Nairobi as examples of how BD discipline, not funding or product quality alone, determines which ventures succeed in African markets. Relevant reading for any executive planning market entry or expansion. Read on Africa.com

• Africa CEO Forum · Kigali, May 14 to 15 → Over 2,500 CEOs, heads of state, and investors convene in Kigali under the theme “Scale or Fail: Why African Capitalism Must Unite.” Kagame, Tinubu, and Dangote are all confirmed. The ownership and scale agenda connects directly to the Dangote IPO, the Lobito financing, and the China zero-tariff debate. Watch for deal announcements on the sidelines.

• Nigeria CPI · May 7 → April inflation data. Continued moderation supports the CBN’s policy stance and naira stability ahead of the Dangote IPO roadshow. An upside surprise complicates both.

• Lobito Corridor Engineering Bids → AFC opens bids from nine firms within weeks, with preferred contractors selected July to August. The award confirms which construction groups win what is expected to be one of Africa’s largest infrastructure contracts of the decade.

This Week’s Sources: Chinese State Council · Global Times · AllAfrica · CNBC Africa · Reuters · Bloomberg · Mining.com · Kitco News · Billionaires Africa · Business Tech Africa · The Exchange Africa · Kenyan Wall Street · Ecofin Agency · Africa Finance Corporation · In On Africa (IOA)

Africa's capital story shifted this week from who is investing in the continent to who owns it. Dangote announced a pan-African IPO for his refinery, valued at up to $50 billion, with listings planned across multiple African exchanges and dividends payable in dollars. At the same time, the IMF confirmed what the energy shock had already made clear: Africa's hard-won 2025 growth gains are under pressure. The divergence between reforming and non-reforming economies is widening. Capital is becoming more selective, not less available.

Dangote Plans Africa’s Biggest-Ever IPO Across Multiple Exchanges

A $40 to $50 billion pan-African listing would reshape capital markets on the continent. The structure, a dollar dividend on a naira-denominated share, is designed to solve Africa’s deepest investor problem.

Aliko Dangote has confirmed plans to list approximately 10% of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals in a pan-African IPO targeting a June to July 2026 launch. The refinery, valued at $40 to $50 billion, is the world’s largest single-train facility at 650,000 barrels per day. A 10% stake could raise $2 to $5 billion, making it the largest equity offering ever on an African stock exchange. The primary listing will be on the Nigerian Exchange, with simultaneous or secondary listings across the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Nairobi Securities Exchange, Ghana Stock Exchange, Ethiopian Securities Exchange, and the BRVM, which covers eight West African countries. The CEOs of all five exchanges met in Lagos on April 1 to coordinate the structure.

The defining feature of the offering is a dollar-denominated dividend structure. Investors buy shares in naira but receive dividends in US dollars, drawn from the refinery’s projected $6.4 billion in annual export revenues. Dangote described the logic directly: local-currency assets historically lose value to devaluation before dividends are paid out. The dollar dividend mechanism addresses that structural barrier to retail and institutional African investor participation. A prospectus submission to the SEC is expected shortly, with a national roadshow and electronic IPO subscription platform planned for May.

WHY IT MATTERS

This is not simply a large IPO. It is a structural test of whether African capital markets can absorb and distribute a transaction of continental scale. If the multi-exchange mechanism works, it creates a template for other major African industrial assets to list locally rather than in London or New York. The dollar dividend structure, if approved by regulators, could meaningfully expand the pool of African retail and institutional investors willing to hold naira-denominated equities. The watch item: whether the 5 to 10% float is large enough to generate meaningful allocations across six exchanges simultaneously, or whether thin float becomes a practical constraint.

» GROWTH OUTLOOK · Continent-Wide

IMF Cuts Sub-Saharan Africa Growth to 4.3%. The Divergence Is the Real Story.

The IMF’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, released April 16, cut the regional growth forecast to 4.3% for 2026, down 0.3 percentage points from its pre-war projection, and downgraded median inflation to 5% by year-end from 3.4% in 2025. The primary driver is the Middle East conflict: higher fuel, fertiliser, and shipping costs are hitting net oil importers hardest. Twenty-nine African currencies had weakened against the dollar as of early April, with the South African rand falling as much as 5%. But the headline figure obscures a sharp divergence. Reforming East African economies, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda, are projected to grow at 5.5 to 7% in 2026. Southern Africa, dragged by South Africa’s structural underperformance, sits at 3.1%. The IMF’s message to oil exporters was pointed: any windfall from higher prices should be saved and invested in diversification, not used to expand spending. Oil importers face the harder task of protecting households from rising costs while preserving fiscal space.

» CAPITAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE · Nairobi

Africa We Build Summit: $45.8 Billion in Projects. The Argument Is Ownership, Not Aid.

The inaugural Africa We Build Summit, hosted by the Africa Finance Corporation in Nairobi on April 23 to 24, showcased $45.8 billion in infrastructure projects spanning railways, airports, and renewable power across the continent. AFC is mobilising $2 billion directly from commercial banks and development finance institutions. The AFC’s State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2026, launched at the summit, delivered a finding that cuts against the prevailing development finance narrative: Africa’s non-bank domestic capital pools now exceed $2 trillion, above the cumulative external flows of the past decade. The constraint is not the absence of capital. It is the failure to channel available savings into productive assets at scale. AFC President Samaila Zubairu framed it precisely: “Africa is not capital-poor; it is capital-trapped.” Kenya’s President Ruto and Uganda’s Museveni both attended in person, reinforcing the political backing behind the domestic capital mobilisation agenda. The AFC and DBSA signed a $750 million Infrastructure Climate Resilient Fund agreement on the summit’s sidelines, targeting climate-proofing of African assets across their full lifecycle.

» MINING POLICY · Ghana

Ghana’s Mining Localisation Push Faces Labour Resistance

Ghana’s Minerals Commission has directed Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti, and Chinese-owned Zijin Mining to hand all surface mining operations to locally owned contractors by December 2026 or face sanctions. The Ghana Mineworkers’ Union, representing 14,000 workers, formally rejected the directive this week, warning that local contractors pay workers approximately 50% less than the multinational operators and have a weaker record on statutory compliance, including pension and provident fund contributions. The union’s letter to the Commission described its opposition as “irrevocable.” The GMWU specifically cited a standoff between workers and Engineers and Planners, the Ghanaian-owned contractor that took over the Damang mine this month, over unpaid statutory benefits. The Minerals Commission has responded by promising clearer pricing benchmarks and tighter contractor oversight. For international miners and investors in Ghana’s gold sector, the December 2026 deadline is now a live compliance and labour risk date, with strike action an explicit union threat.

Nigeria enters 2026 at an inflection point. The Dangote Refinery, now meeting more than 90% of domestic petrol demand and exporting to five African countries and the UK, has structurally altered Nigeria’s energy economy for the first time in a generation. The Tinubu administration’s 2023 reforms, exchange rate unification and fuel subsidy removal, were painful but have improved the macro picture. The naira stabilised through 2025 even as global currency pressures intensified. The IMF singled out Nigeria alongside Ethiopia as examples of reform-driven recovery in its April 2026 outlook.

The structural picture is large and complex. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, approaching 230 million people, and its consumer market is the continent’s largest by volume. Lagos is Africa’s largest city and its most active startup and financial services hub. The fintech ecosystem, led by names like Flutterwave, Moniepoint, and Paystack, has attracted more venture capital than any other African market over the past five years. Manufacturing has grown to become Africa’s largest. The entertainment industry, through Nollywood and Afrobeats, generates significant services export revenue. The risk profile is real: security challenges in the north and the Niger Delta remain material, infrastructure gaps are pervasive, and the bureaucratic environment is complex. But the direction of reform is positive, and the macro foundations have meaningfully improved.

OPPORTUNITIES: Consumer goods and services for a 230 million-person market, fintech and digital financial services, energy including the Dangote refinery supply chain and upstream oil, manufacturing, agriculture, and Nollywood-adjacent media and entertainment. The Dangote IPO creates a new equity investment route for portfolio exposure.

RISKS: Security: militant activity in the Niger Delta and kidnapping risks in northern regions. Naira volatility and FX access constraints remain ongoing operational risks. Infrastructure gaps, particularly in power, add cost to manufacturing operations. Bureaucratic complexity and corruption require active management.

OPERATING TIPS: 100% foreign ownership is permitted in locally incorporated companies, with a minimum share capital of $6,000. Company registration is fully online via the Corporate Affairs Commission's i-CRP portal. Business culture is hierarchical; relationships and seniority matter. Northern Nigeria is majority Muslim, requiring cultural sensitivity. Avoid the Niger Delta and northern conflict zones for personnel travel.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa country profiles by IOA. Read the full Nigeria profile.

• Nigeria · Refining Expansion Dangote has offered to anchor a consortium to build a major crude oil refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, targeting East African fuel independence. Kenya's President Ruto confirmed at a London conference that Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania are in active talks on the project, with a four to five-year construction timeline. The move reflects Africa's accelerating push for domestic refining capacity after the Hormuz shock exposed supply chain fragility. Source

• Continent-Wide · Banking McKinsey reports that Africa's banking revenues crossed $100 billion for the first time in 2025, with most gains concentrated in five markets: Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, and Morocco. The milestone reflects both the growth of retail banking penetration and the rapid expansion of digital financial services across the continent. Source

• Ethiopia · Investment Ethiopia sealed $13 billion in investment deals in 2026, dwarfing regional rivals, with China leading as the primary source of capital. The figure positions Addis Ababa as one of the continent's most active investment destinations and reflects the payoff from years of painful macroeconomic reform under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Source

• South Africa · Manufacturing Manufacturing output fell 2.8% year-on-year in February 2026, the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since April 2025. Food and beverage production, wood products, and basic metals led the contraction. The data complicates the bullish narrative from the SAIC investment pledges and signals that translating commitments into output growth remains the country's central challenge. Source

• Digital Policy · Continent-Wide A new iAfrica.com analysis argues that Africa's digital evolution is entering a governance phase. Governments across the continent are moving from building connectivity to asserting control over data, AI, and digital infrastructure as strategic national assets. The piece identifies a core structural gap: Africa holds 18% of the world's population but less than 2% of global data centre capacity, leaving the continent dependent on external digital infrastructure. Countries with the strongest data governance frameworks are becoming the continent's digital hubs. The business implication is direct: operators and investors building digital platforms across Africa will increasingly encounter data localisation requirements, AI regulatory frameworks, and sovereignty-driven procurement preferences. Read on iAfrica.com

Dangote IPO Prospectus Submission: Watch for the filing with Nigeria’s SEC in the coming days and the formal roadshow launch in May. The prospectus will confirm the float size, exchange allocation methodology, and dollar dividend framework. If the SEC approves the currency structure, it sets a regulatory precedent with continental implications for how African equities are denominated and priced for international investors.

Ghana Mining Sector · December 2026 Deadline: The Minerals Commission’s compliance deadline for Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti, and Zijin now has organised labour formally opposed and strike action threatened. Watch whether the government negotiates with the GMWU before the deadline or presses ahead. Either outcome has implications for Ghana’s mining investment climate and gold production trajectory heading into 2027.

IMF Programme Pipeline: The IMF currently has active programmes in 22 of Sub-Saharan Africa’s 45 countries. With the growth downgrade and energy shock widening fiscal gaps, watch for new programme requests from oil-importing economies with limited buffers, particularly in the WAEMU zone and East Africa, in Q2 and Q3 2026.

This Week’s Sources: African Business · Bloomberg · Champion News · CNBC Africa · IMF Regional Economic Outlook April 2026 · Business Tech Africa · The Exchange Africa · AllAfrica · Finance in Africa · Africa Finance Corporation · In On Africa (IOA)

Two forces are shaping Africa's investment environment this week. The US Navy blockaded Iranian ports this morning after peace talks collapsed, pushing Brent back above $100 and worsening the fiscal outlook for net oil-importing African economies. At the same time, Morocco signed Africa's first sovereign AI infrastructure deal, and the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings open in Washington today. Capital is moving toward the continent's most stable markets even as an energy shock tests the ones that are not.

Morocco Lands Africa’s First Sovereign AI Factory in $1.2 Billion GITEX Deal

The agreement positions Morocco as the continent’s AI gateway. It also reveals where advanced infrastructure capital is now moving in Africa.

At GITEX Africa 2026 in Marrakech, Morocco signed an MOU with Nexus Core Systems to build Africa’s first sovereign AI infrastructure platform. Initial investment stands at $1.2 billion. The facility near Casablanca reaches 36 megawatts of capacity on 100% renewable energy, with Nvidia and Naver Cloud providing technology and Lloyds Capital backing the investment. US Ambassador Duke Buchan III attended the signing.

The project combines a high-performance computing data center, a Center of Excellence for AI skills development, and a startup innovation hub. Morocco beat competing bids from South Africa and others on political stability, EU market access through Tanger Med, and infrastructure depth. It sits inside the country’s Digital 2030 strategy targeting a 5% digital GDP contribution and 270,000 new jobs.

WHY IT MATTERS

Morocco is executing a deliberate strategy to become Africa's AI and digital services hub, with American and European technology partners as anchors. Downstream opportunity runs across data center services, AI talent, startups, and adjacent renewable energy plays. Operators building continental digital infrastructure should treat Morocco's combination of EU access, political stability, and connectivity as a meaningful differentiator from other African entry points.

» ENERGY CRISIS · Continent-Wide

The Hormuz Blockade Begins. Africa Is Now Priced Into a Longer Crisis.

The US Navy began enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports this morning after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed. Brent rose 7% to $102, now more than 40% above pre-war levels. OPEC’s April report shows Gulf crude production fell 27% in March. Nigeria was the exception, posting a small output increase. For net oil importers across Africa, the fiscal picture is deteriorating. South Africa faces a further R2 to R4 per litre diesel increase at its next adjustment. Analysts now project elevated oil prices through at least year-end regardless of when the war ends, because reopening the strait and repairing Gulf infrastructure takes time even after any ceasefire holds.

» MINING POLICY · Ghana

Ghana Awards Damang Mine to Local Operator, Ending Gold Fields’ 30-Year Run

Ghana awarded the Damang gold mine lease to Engineers and Planners Ltd, a wholly Ghanaian-owned firm, after a competitive tender restricted to local companies. The government declined to renew Gold Fields’ lease in 2025, breaking with years of automatic extensions. Engineers and Planners secured $505 million in financing and scored 93% in technical evaluation. Formal handover is April 18. The mine holds 3.55 million ounces in estimated reserves and an 11-year production plan through 2036. For international miners holding multi-decade leases across West Africa, the message is clear: automatic renewal is no longer the default.

» GLOBAL FINANCE · Washington DC

Spring Meetings Open Today. Africa’s Agenda: Debt, Development Finance, and the Energy Shock.

The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings run April 13 to 18 in Washington. African delegations are focused on debt sustainability as Eurobond access stays constrained, development finance reform, and the Hormuz energy shock, which has blown holes in budget projections across net oil-importing economies. The IMF Sub-Saharan Africa outlook on Wednesday will set the baseline for sovereign risk pricing through Q2. The bilateral meetings between African finance ministers and major creditors will matter more than the official communiques.

Africa.com is on the ground in Washington. US Contributing Editor Liz Grossman Kitoyi is covering the Spring Meetings this week. Follow her reporting at Africa.com.

This week’s AI Factory deal is Morocco’s most visible 2026 win, but not an isolated one. Morocco has run a consistent strategy for two decades: offer political stability, EU market access, and deep logistics infrastructure to attract European and American capital. Casablanca Finance City is North Africa’s leading financial hub. An automotive corridor anchored by Renault and Stellantis makes Morocco Africa’s leading vehicle exporter. OCP Group makes Morocco the world’s largest phosphate exporter. Green hydrogen and solar energy are the next frontier, drawing European investment ahead of EU 2030 decarbonisation targets. The 100% renewable energy requirement for the Nexus facility connects directly to that ambition.

Full foreign ownership of locally incorporated firms is permitted. Free economic zones offer tax holidays and reduced duties. Friction points include government procurement opacity, slow bureaucracy, and a legal system blending French, Spanish, and Islamic law requiring specialist counsel. Morocco’s Western Sahara territorial claim carries compliance and reputational exposure for international operators, particularly in European supply chains.

• OPPORTUNITIES: AI and digital infrastructure, renewable energy and green hydrogen, phosphate and automotive export sectors, Casablanca Finance City for regional financial operations. Strong EU connectivity makes Morocco an effective Africa-Europe platform.

• RISKS: Western Sahara dispute creates diplomatic and supply chain compliance exposure. Government procurement lacks transparency. Legal system requires specialist counsel. Structural water scarcity after seven consecutive drought years is a mounting operational and social risk.

• OPERATING TIPS: 100% foreign ownership permitted in locally incorporated firms. LLC registration requires approximately $3,200 via the Regional Investment Centre in Rabat. Free zones offer tax holidays. Arabic and French are the languages of business. Relationship-building takes priority over speed.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa country profiles by IOA. Read the full Morocco profile.

• South Africa · Investment The sixth SA Investment Conference closed with R890 billion in pledges across 81 projects, including Sasol’s R60 billion commitment and Toyota’s R10.4 billion in KwaZulu-Natal. Ramaphosa raised the five-year investment target to R3 trillion. The Hormuz energy shock was not priced into those projections. Source

• Continent-Wide · Startup Capital African startups raised approximately $705 million across 59 deals in 14 countries in Q1 2026, up 26% year-on-year. Egypt led at $190 million, followed by South Africa at $157 million and Kenya at $94 million. Capital is reaching Dakar, Addis Ababa, and Tunis in volumes that previously concentrated only in Lagos, Nairobi, and Cape Town. Source

• Kenya · Consumer Deal A court cleared Diageo’s $2.3 billion sale of its East African Breweries stake to Japan’s Asahi Group, removing the final legal challenge to one of East Africa’s largest consumer transactions in years. A positive signal for investor confidence in Kenyan commercial courts. Source

• Egypt · Gas ENI and Egypt announced a natural gas discovery in the Eastern Mediterranean’s Temsah field, 70 kilometres offshore, as Egypt faces acute energy pressure from the Hormuz closure. Source

• Kenya · Capital and Infrastructure Africa Finance Corporation is convening the inaugural Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi on April 23 to 24, anchored around the theme “Infrastructure as the Engine of Industrialisation.” The summit’s central argument: Africa is not capital-poor, it is capital-trapped. Sessions will focus on mobilising domestic capital into bankable projects, including regional corridors, cross-border energy systems, and strategic minerals value chains. The launch of the State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2026 will run alongside the event. Read on Africa.com

• IMF Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook · Wednesday April 16 Updated growth forecasts will set sovereign risk pricing through Q2. Watch for downward revisions for net oil importers: Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and the WAEMU zone.

• Nigeria CPI · Tuesday April 15 Watch for signs that energy and food prices are reversing recent inflation moderation. An upside surprise would pressure the Central Bank of Nigeria and complicate the naira’s stabilisation.

• Strait of Hormuz Mine Clearance The US military began clearing Iranian mines on April 11. Brent sustained above $110 is the threshold where African fiscal damage compounds materially for food and fertiliser import-dependent economies.

This Week’s Sources: Business Tech Africa · CNBC · CNN · Morocco World News · Connecting Africa · Empower Africa · SAnews · Billionaires Africa · Brookings Institution · OPEC Monthly Market Report · In On Africa (IOA)

We launch on a day when the Iran war is setting fuel prices across the continent. Brent crude is near $110. Trump has given Iran until today to reopen the Strait. From Cape Town to Dakar, governments are absorbing the shock. Below, we cover the energy crisis, the AfDB's strong growth data, the week's key investment deals, and what it all means for operators on the ground.

Africa Outpaces the World, But the Road Ahead Narrows

The African Development Bank's new flagship report delivers the numbers investors have been waiting for. The timing could not be more complicated.

Africa's real GDP grew 4.2% in 2025, up from 3.1% in 2024 and well above the 3.1% world average. Growth was broad-based. Twenty-two countries exceeded 5%. Six surpassed 7%. Inflation fell from 21.8% to 13.6%. Foreign direct investment rose more than 75% to $97 billion. Remittances climbed 14% to $104.6 billion, overtaking foreign portfolio investment as the continent's largest source of external non-debt financing.

At the Abidjan launch, AfDB President Dr. Sidi Ould Tah acknowledged the continent faces geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, and declining development finance flows simultaneously. His chief economist put a number on the Hormuz risk: a crisis lasting beyond three months could shave 0.2 percentage points off Africa's 2026 growth rate. As of Monday, Brent settled at $109.77. Trump has given Iran a Tuesday deadline. The IEA has called this the largest oil supply disruption in the history of global energy markets. The AfDB's projections predate all of it.

WHY IT MATTERS

Twelve of the world's 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 were African. The FDI rebound and breadth of growth make a strong case for pan-African exposure. The risk is immediate: two-thirds of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP sits in net fuel-importing countries. A sustained oil shock above $110 threatens to reverse fiscal gains made since 2024. Watch this number closely.

DEAL WATCH · Nigeria

Afreximbank Makes Its Largest-Ever Industrial Commitment

Afreximbank underwrote $2.5 billion of a $4 billion loan for Dangote’s Lekki refinery, the pan-African lender’s biggest single commitment to an industrial project. The refinery, Africa’s largest, is designed to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined fuel and position the country as a regional supplier.

CAPTIAL MARKETS · Continent-Wide

Who Is Writing Africa’s Biggest Cheques Now

African startups raised $554.5 million in Q1 2026, down 8.2% year-on-year. The decline is less significant than the shift in who is providing capital. Banks and development finance institutions are now leading the largest rounds, not venture funds. SolarAfrica’s $94 million came from Rand Merchant Bank and Investec. Enko Education’s $22 million was a Standard Bank loan. Spiro’s $50 million was structured by Afreximbank. Infrastructure-oriented businesses are attracting capital. Pure-play tech is not.

ENERGY CRISIS · Continent-Wide

The Hormuz Crisis Is Now a Direct Business Problem Across Africa

Strait of Hormuz traffic is down more than 90% from pre-war levels. Iran has partially exempted Iraq from restrictions, but the broader closure holds. Governments across Africa are responding. South Africa raised petrol by R3.06 per litre and diesel by up to R7.51; Finance Minister Godongwana cut the fuel levy by R3 for one month at a cost of R6 billion to the state. Namibia cut fuel levies by 50% for three months. Mauritania raised petrol 15.3% and diesel 10%. Senegal banned ministerial foreign travel after oil prices nearly doubled from budgeted levels. UNCTAD warns that Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia import significant shares of fertilizer through the Persian Gulf, compounding food security risks as planting seasons begin.

US-Africa Trade

AGOA Is Technically Alive. For Most Countries, It Barely Matters.

Congress extended AGOA through December 2026, but a 10% blanket surcharge under the 1974 Trade Act remains in force until late July, largely neutralising the preference. AGOA exports fell 32% in the year to November 2025. South African auto exports, once a flagship of the programme, dropped 75%. The exception is minerals. DRC’s exports to the US surged 860% since April 2025. Washington’s need for African critical materials is growing — and that leverage is real.

Kenya enters 2026 as East Africa’s commercial hub, but with limited fiscal room. Government debt is elevated. Infrastructure financing has tightened after China’s development lending dried up. Popular resistance to new taxes is strong. The country’s “Non-NATO US Ally” status, awarded in 2024, remains its strongest signal to international investors that the political relationship with Washington is durable.

The Hormuz crisis lands directly on Kenya’s balance sheet. Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi said Monday that fuel supply is adequate for now, but acknowledged that rising energy costs, trade disruption, and supply chain pressure are the central risks. UNCTAD data shows Kenya imports 26% of its fertilizer through the Persian Gulf. Planting seasons are approaching. On the investment side, the IFC backed e-mobility startup Arc Ride in Q1, ER Group opened its East Africa regional headquarters in Nairobi, and Kenya’s 20% US tariff leaves its apparel exporters better placed than Bangladesh or Vietnam to capture redirected buyer demand.

• OPPORTUNITIES: Nairobi is East Africa's financial hub and a testbed for regional tech rollouts. Advanced ICT and mobile money leadership give Kenya a unique fintech advantage. The creative economy, including digital content and film, is an emerging growth frontier.

• RISKS: Governance undermined by corruption; Islamic extremist threat in coastal regions. Recurring climate shocks require strong risk planning. Debt servicing pressures may delay infrastructure and social spending.

• OPERATING TIPS: Business registration is fully digitised via the eCitizen portal. Export Processing Zones offer corporate tax holidays. Business culture is shaped by Harambee (mutual assistance and community); defer to seniority and avoid the left hand in greetings.

Country intelligence sourced from the Africa.com Doing Business in Africa country profiles by IOA. Read the full profile.

South Africa / Energy Finance Minister Godongwana cut the fuel levy by R3 per litre for one month, costing the state R6 billion, after petrol rose R3.06 and diesel up to R7.51 per litre in April. He said the government will assess extending relief through May and June if the conflict continues. Source

West Africa / Development Finance EBID approved $266.7 million and CFA 30 billion in new commitments to West Africa, targeting transport, energy, and productive sector projects across the region. Source

Central Africa / Banking Vista Group has been approved to acquire Chad's BAC bank, its first Central African acquisition. Chad's formal banking penetration is around 15% with credit-to-GDP below 10%, the profile Vista has built its strategy around. Source

Infrastructure / Analysis A new Africa.com/IOA analysis argues African port, rail, and airport investment is shifting from capacity to resilience, with AfCFTA providing structural support for intra-continental trade as external supply chains grow less reliable. Read on Africa.com

South Africa / Consumer Coca-Cola and its two authorised South African bottlers committed R17.6 billion through 2030 to expand production and strengthen distribution networks, one of the largest consumer goods pledges in South Africa in recent years. Source

• Apr 13–15 Northern Cape Investment and Jobs Conference: Kimberley, South Africa: minerals, renewables, agriculture

• Apr 22–23 Invest in African Energy Forum (IAE): Paris - LNG, upstream oil, renewables, deal flow

• Jul 24 US Section 122 Tariff Expiry: Current 10% surcharge lapses; watch for extension or escalation

• Jul 26–29 US–Africa Business Summit 2026: Mauritius: Corporate Council on Africa; trade and minerals diplomacy

This Week’s Sources: AfDB 2026 MEO Report · Launch Base Africa Q1 2026 Investor Activity Report · Billionaires.Africa · Business Tech Africa · Platform Africa · ISS Africa · CSIS · Brookings · In On Africa (IOA)